| Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖 |
|
| Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料 |
Tau
時間差 |
HK Time
香港時間 |
Lat.
緯度 |
Long.
經度 |
Movement
移動速度和方向 |
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度 |
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角 |
| t+0 |
07/26 (Tue) 14:00 |
18.4°N
| 112.2°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (295°) 20 km/h |
40 kt (74 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
SSW 西南偏南 479 km |
| t+12 |
07/27 (Wed) 02:00 |
19.3°N
| 110.1°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (295°) 20 km/h |
45 kt (83 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
SW 西南 538 km |
| t+24 |
07/27 (Wed) 14:00 |
20.2°N
| 108.0°E
| NW 西北 (306°) 16 km/h |
40 kt (74 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
WSW 西南偏西 680 km |
| t+36 |
07/28 (Thu) 02:00 |
21.2°N
| 106.5°E
| NW 西北 (313°) 15 km/h |
45 kt (83 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
W 西 801 km |
| t+48 |
07/28 (Thu) 14:00 |
22.3°N
| 105.2°E
| NW 西北 (319°) 12 km/h |
30 kt (56 km/h) |
TD 熱帶低氣壓 |
W 西 922 km |
| t+72 |
07/29 (Fri) 14:00 |
24.3°N
| 103.3°E
| N/A |
20 kt (37 km/h) |
LPA 低壓區 |
WNW 西北偏西 1131 km |
|
| Overview 總覽 |
Tropical disturbance 95W intensified into tropical depression 05W last night. The cyclone intensified further into a tropical storm today and was named MIRINAE. At 2 pm, MIRINAE was centred about 480 km (260 NM) SSW of Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 8:40 am today.
熱帶擾動 95W 昨晚增強為熱帶低氣壓 05W。該氣旋今天進一步增強為熱帶風暴，並被命名為銀河。在下午 2 時，銀河集結在香港西南偏南約 480 公里 (260 海里)。香港天文台於今早 8 時 40 分發出一號戒備信號。 |
| TC
Naming 氣旋命名 |
MIRINAE is the 95th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning the Milky Way. This name was used in 2009.
銀河為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 95 個名字，由南韓提供。此名曾於 2009 年使用。 |
| Movement
Analysis 路徑分析 |
MIRINAE is moving WNW along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge that has an ESE-WNW orientation, and a landfall at Hainan is expected tonight or early tomorrow. The ridge is expected to weaken slightly soon and this will cause MIRINAE to move NW at later taus towards northern Vietnam.
銀河正沿一東南偏東-西北偏西向的副熱帶高壓脊南部向西北偏西移動，將於今晚至明日早段登陸海南島。預料副高會於短期內稍為減弱，令銀河於較後時間向西北移動，趨向越南北部一帶。 |
| Intensity
Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
MIRINAE is in very warm seas (around 29-30 degrees) with moderate easterly vertical wind shear that is responsible for the apparent displacement of its convections to the west. Some intensification prior to landfall and in the Gulf of Tonkin is possible, but the storm will not stay in water for long enough to see substantial development. MIRINAE should weaken quickly into an area of low pressure after landfall.
銀河一帶海面較暖 (海溫 29 至 30 度)，但附近垂直風切變處於中等水平，令其對流向西切離。風暴或可於登陸海南島前及橫過北部灣時增強，但由於它逗留海上時間不長，其發展空間較低。銀河將於登陸後快速減弱為一低壓區。 |
| Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
MIRINAE is expected to remain at a considerable distance from Hong Kong. There will likely be a few squally showers, and offshore southeasterly winds may occasionally reach strong force today and tomorrow, but otherwise no significant threat is expected.
預料銀河將與本港維持一段距離。本港於今明兩天或會受幾陣狂風驟雨影響，離岸東南風間中達強風程度，但除此以外預料不會有明顯威脅。 |
| Next Update
下次更新 |
2016/07/27 (Wed 三), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早) |
| Other Images
其他圖像 |
|
| Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
Signal 信號 |
t+12 |
t+24 |
t+36 |
t+48 |
t+60 |
t+72 |
| Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) |
Low 低 |
High 高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
| Strong Wind 強風 #3 |
Low 低 |
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| Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 |
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| G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 |
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| Hurricane 颶風 #10 |
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Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率，首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。 |
| Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版] |
Tau 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
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Prob. of T1 at tau (%) 95 78 41 14 6 3 1 1 0 0 0 0
Prob. of cancelling T1 [t-6 to t+0] (%) 5 17 38 26 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 0
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Prob. of T3 at tau (%) 4 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Prob. of issuing T3 [t-6 to t+0] (%) 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
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Prob. of T8 at tau (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Prob. of issuing T8 [t-6 to t+0] (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
============================================================================
T1 T3 T8
Prob. of issuing by t+72 (%) NA 8 0
Prob. of cancelling by t+72 (%) 100 NA NA
Joint work with World Typhoon Web 與世界熱帶氣旋網共同製作 |
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
