Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖 |

|
Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料 |
Tau
時間差 |
HK Time
香港時間 |
Lat.
緯度 |
Long.
經度 |
Movement
移動速度和方向 |
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度 |
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角 |
t+0 |
08/01 (Mon) 14:00 |
21.0°N
| 117.6°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (301°) 24 km/h |
65 kt (120 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 |
ESE 東南偏東 383 km |
t+12 |
08/02 (Tue) 02:00 |
22.3°N
| 115.2°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (295°) 24 km/h |
75 kt (139 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 |
E 東 106 km |
t+24 |
08/02 (Tue) 14:00 |
23.4°N
| 112.6°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (286°) 24 km/h |
65 kt (120 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 |
NW 西北 202 km |
t+36 |
08/03 (Wed) 02:00 |
24.1°N
| 109.9°E
| W 西 (280°) 22 km/h |
50 kt (93 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
WNW 西北偏西 480 km |
t+48 |
08/03 (Wed) 14:00 |
24.5°N
| 107.3°E
| W 西 (277°) 16 km/h |
40 kt (74 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
WNW 西北偏西 742 km |
t+72 |
08/04 (Thu) 14:00 |
24.9°N
| 103.5°E
| N/A |
20 kt (37 km/h) |
LPA 低壓區 |
WNW 西北偏西 1124 km |
|
Overview 總覽 |
NIDA has intensified into a typhoon and is now moving WNW to NW steadily, approaching southern China coastal areas. At 2 pm, NIDA was centred about 380 km (210 NM) ESE of Hong Kong. The #1 Standby Signal was issued at 10:10 pm last night, and was replaced by the #3 Strong Wind Signal at 11:40 am today.
妮妲已增強為颱風,並穩定向西北偏西至西北移動,靠近華南沿岸。在下午 2 時,妮妲集結在香港東南偏東約 380 公里 (210 海里)。香港天文台於昨晚 10 時 10 分發出一號戒備信號,其後於今天上午 11 時 40 分改發三號強風信號。 |
TC
Naming 氣旋命名 |
NIDA is the 96th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Thailand, and is a female's name. This name was used in 2004 and 2009.
妮妲為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 96 個名字,由泰國提供,為一女性名字。此名曾於 2004 及 2009 年使用。 |
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析 |
NIDA is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge and make landfall in the vicinity of the Pearl River Estuary overnight, with a slightly higher possibility of landfall east of Hong Kong. The storm is expected to deflect to the west after landfall.
預料妮妲將沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西移動,凌晨時段於珠江口附近地區登陸,登陸點較大機會於香港以東。登陸後,妮妲的路徑將漸轉偏西。 |
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS
NIDA has developed a rather large banding eye. It is still expected to intensify over the next 12 hours in warm seas with decent divergence aloft. The storm will weaken quickly after landfall.
妮妲發展出一較大雲捲風眼。在溫暖的洋面及良好高空輻散的環境下,預料妮妲可於未來 12 小時增強,並將於登陸後減弱。 |
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
NIDA's outer rainbands are now affecting Hong Kong. The storm is expected to be very close to Hong Kong tonight and northwesterly winds will pick up rapidly after sunset, reaching gale force and possibly storm force offshore. According to the present analysis, NIDA is more likely to make landfall east of the territory, and in this situation winds will back from the northwest to southwest early tomorrow. Note that astronomical high tide occurs on Tuesday morning and may exacerbate the effect of storm surge if NIDA comes close at that time. Please take all necessary precautions as soon as possible and refer regularly to the latest developments of the tropical cyclone.
妮妲的外圍雨帶已開始影響香港。預料風暴今晚將非常接近本港,日落後西北風將快速增強至烈風程度,離岸可能吹暴風。按照目前分析,妮妲較大可能於香港以東登陸,在此情況下風向會於明日由西北逆轉至西南。注意周二早上適逢天文大潮,如風暴屆時靠近本港或會加劇風暴潮的影響。請盡早完成所有防風措施,並定時留意最新熱帶氣旋發展。 |
Next Update
下次更新 |
2016/08/02 (Tue 二), in the small hours 凌晨 (or earlier 或更早) |
Other Images
其他圖像 |
|
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
The Observatory has already indicated that the #8 Gale or Storm Signal will be considered between 6 and 10 pm tonight.
天文台已表示將於今晚 6 至 10 時考慮改發八號烈風或暴風信號。
Signal 信號 |
t+12 |
t+24 |
t+36 |
t+48 |
t+60 |
t+72 |
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) |
|
|
Medium 中等 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) |
|
Low 低 |
High 高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 |
Very High 極高 |
High 高 |
|
|
|
|
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 |
Medium 中等 |
|
|
|
|
|
Hurricane 颶風 #10 |
Low 低 |
|
|
|
|
|
Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。 |
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版] |
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 |
+6 Mon 20h | +12 Tue 02h | +18 Tue 08h | +24 Tue 14h | +30 Tue 20h | +36 Wed 02h | +42 Wed 08h | +48 Wed 14h | +54 Wed 20h | +60 Thu 02h | +66 Thu 08h | +72 Thu 14h |
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
100 | 100 | 100 | 97 | 84 | 52 | 23 | 8 | 2 | 1 | | |
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 |
| | | 3 | 13 | 32 | 29 | 16 | 6 | 2 | | |
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
100 | 100 | 100 | 96 | 73 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 1 | | | |
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 |
| | | 4 | 23 | 40 | 20 | 8 | 3 | 1 | | |
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
6 | 72 | 91 | 57 | 8 | | | | | | | |
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
6 | 66 | 20 | 2 | | | | | | | | |
Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast 預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 | #1+ | #3+ | #8+ |
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 | -- | -- | 94 |
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 | 100 | 100 | -- |
Joint work with World Typhoon Web
與世界熱帶氣旋網共同製作
Explanatory material: Press here
說明文檔:按此
|