CONSON is the 98th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Vietnam, and is a place in Haihung province of that country. This name was used in 2004 and 2010; the #1 Standby Signal was issued in Hong Kong in both occasions.
CONSON continues to move NNW. At 2 pm, CONSON was centred about 900 km (480 NM) SE of Sapporo.
康森繼續向西北偏北移動。在下午 2 時，康森集結在札幌東南約 900 公里 (480 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
CONSON is the 98th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Vietnam, and is a place in Haihung province of that country. This name was used in 2004 and 2010; the #1 Standby Signal was issued in Hong Kong in both occasions.
CONSON is expected to move NNW turning to N along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge in the next 24 hours.
預料康森將於未來 24 小時沿副熱帶高壓脊西部向西北偏北轉北移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS
CONSON's deeper convections are dissipating. The storm is expected to transform into an extratropical cyclone in the next 24 hours, weakening slightly in the process.
康森的較深層對流正逐漸消散。預料風暴會於未來 24 小時轉化為溫帶氣旋，期間略為減弱。
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
預料康森於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。
Next Update
下次更新
2016/08/15 (Mon 一), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)
Other Images
其他圖像
JTWC Track 聯合颱風警報中心路徑圖
JMA Track 日本氣象廳路徑圖
HKO Satellite 香港天文台衛星圖
HKO Track 香港天文台路徑圖
Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
N/A 不適用
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版]
CONSON is the 98th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Vietnam, and is a place in Haihung province of that country. This name was used in 2004 and 2010; the #1 Standby Signal was issued in Hong Kong in both occasions.
The subtropical ridge northeast of CONSON is extending westwards; this should allow the storm to move NNW in the next 24 hours with a gradual increase in speed. CONSON is expected to turn north later as it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.
CONSON's low-level centre remains exposed, with its convective bands displaced to the northwestern quadrant. The storm is expected to maintain intensity over the next 24-48 hours. Because of its rather high speed, the timing of extratropical transition has been adjusted earlier to between t+36 and t+48.
CONSON is the 98th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Vietnam, and is a place in Haihung province of that country. This name was used in 2004 and 2010; the #1 Standby Signal was issued in Hong Kong in both occasions.
CONSON is moving north along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The ridge is expected to build back soon, allowing CONSON to accelerate towards the NNW in the next 48 hours. CONSON should cross the ridge axis near t+72, but will continue to travel N given the subtropical ridge's northward protrusion to rather high latitudes near that time.
CONSON's appearance did not improve much, but wind field scans this morning showed southeasterly winds of 40 knots in CONSON's northeastern quadrant, justifying the current intensity estimate. CONSON is not expected to intensify much as it is about to enter cooler seas. Extratropical transition should take place between t+72 and t+96.
CONSON is the 98th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Vietnam, and is a place in Haihung province of that country. This name was used in 2004 and 2010; the #1 Standby Signal was issued in Hong Kong in both occasions.
CONSON is expected to move N to NNE along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge over the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the ridge will strengthen again at higher latitudes, allowing CONSON to accelerate towards the NNW. CONSON should cross the ridge axis near t+96, but will continue to travel N or turn at most towards the NNE given the subtropical ridge's northward protrusion to rather high latitudes near that time.
CONSON's low-level circulation centre is fully exposed as deep convections are sheared to its east. Vertical wind shear is expected to lessen somewhat over the next 48 hours and this should allow CONSON to pick up some strength. This would however not last long as seas above 30°N are too cold (around 25 degrees) to fuel the cyclone. Extratropical transition is expected between t+96 and t+120.
CONSON is the 98th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Vietnam, and is a place in Haihung province of that country. This name was used in 2004 and 2010; the #1 Standby Signal was issued in Hong Kong in both occasions.
The subtropical ridge is strengthening east to southeast of CONSON; as the ridge to the north weakens, CONSON should turn north sharply in the next 24 hours. CONSON should then move N to NNE along the western periphery of the retreated ridge. The ridge is expected to build back after t+72, allowing CONSON to move NNW at later taus. Tropical cyclone formation southwest of CONSON is possible near t+72, but most numerical model solutions indicate that the steering ridge is strong enough to offset the possible interaction between these two low pressure systems.
CONSON is still affected by somewhat stronger vertical wind shear which prohibits significant development. Intensification is expected through t+72 as seas remain warm and environmental conditions are expected to improve. The storm will start to weaken beyond t+72 as sea temperatures are significantly lower above 30°N.
CONSON is the 98th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Vietnam, and is a place in Haihung province of that country. This name was used in 2004 and 2010; the #1 Standby Signal was issued in Hong Kong in both occasions.
CONSON is dipping south due to an extension of the subtropical ridge to its west. The ridge is expected to strengthen southeast of the storm, causing it to move WNW to NW initially. This is followed by a rapid retreat of the main body of the subtropical ridge at higher latitudes and, as a result, CONSON should turn to the NNE as the southeastern ridge dominates. Prediction of CONSON's later development is complicated by the possibility of tropical cyclone formation west of the storm; some models are predicting the two systems to interact, allowing CONSON to take on a more westerly course.
Vertical wind shear near CONSON has increased and its convections are being displaced to the northeast. Intensification is expected through t+72 as seas remain warm and environmental conditions are expected to improve. Intensity changes beyond that depends on whether tropical cyclone formation to the west materializes; if that happens, CONSON's ventilation channels will likely be adversely affected.
08W is expected to move W to WNW along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the short run. A reorientation of the ridge will see 08W situated in its southwestern periphery later on, and this should cause the storm to turn NW. Subsequent movement is uncertain as the steering ridge is expected to weaken at later taus, and numerical models are predicting tropical cyclone formation west of 08W later this week, potentially interacting with 08W beyond the current forecast period.
The wind field analysis this morning depicts a well-defined low-level circulation centre; 08W's convections are better developed in its northeastern quadrant. The storm should be able to intensify gradually in warm seas with low to moderate vertical wind shear.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
