Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖 |

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Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料 |
Tau
時間差 |
HK Time
香港時間 |
Lat.
緯度 |
Long.
經度 |
Movement
移動速度和方向 |
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度 |
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角 |
t+0 |
08/18 (Thu) 11:00 |
21.0°N
| 111.5°E
| W 西 (267°) 18 km/h |
40 kt (74 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
WSW 西南偏西 311 km |
t+12 |
08/18 (Thu) 23:00 |
20.9°N
| 109.4°E
| W 西 (268°) 20 km/h |
45 kt (83 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
WSW 西南偏西 517 km |
t+24 |
08/19 (Fri) 11:00 |
20.8°N
| 107.1°E
| W 西 (268°) 20 km/h |
55 kt (102 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
WSW 西南偏西 749 km |
t+36 |
08/19 (Fri) 23:00 |
20.7°N
| 104.8°E
| W 西 (275°) 24 km/h |
35 kt (65 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
W 西 985 km |
t+48 |
08/20 (Sat) 11:00 |
20.9°N
| 102.0°E
| N/A |
20 kt (37 km/h) |
LPA 低壓區 |
W 西 1267 km |
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Overview 總覽 |
95W has intensified into a tropical storm, and was named DIANMU by the JMA. The JTWC upgraded the system into a tropical depression and assigned to it the storm number 11W. At 11 am, DIANMU was centred about 310 km (170 NM) WSW of Hong Kong. The #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 10:15 pm last night, but was replaced by the #1 Standby Signal just now at 11:15 am.
Update at 1:20 pm: The #1 Standby Signal was cancelled at 1:15 pm.
95W 已增強為熱帶風暴,被日本氣象廳命名為電母。聯合颱風警報中心亦將此系統升格為熱帶低氣壓,並給予風暴編號 11W。在上午 11 時,電母集結在香港西南偏西約 310 公里 (170 海里)。天文台於昨晚 10 時 15 分發出三號強風信號,但此信號剛於上午 11 時 15 分被一號戒備信號取代。
於下午 1 時 20 分更新:一號戒備信號已於下午 1 時 15 分取消。 |
TC
Naming 氣旋命名 |
DIANMU is the 100th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning the Mother of Lightning. This name was used in 2004 and 2010.
電母為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 100 個名字,由中國提供,意思為電之母。此名曾於 2004 及 2010 年使用。 |
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析 |
DIANMU is now moving westwards at a higher speed. As the ridge in China strengthens, DIANMU is expected to accelerate to the west, crossing the Gulf of Tonkin early tomorrow and making landfall at northern Vietnam tomorrow afternoon to nighttime.
電母現以較高速度西移。隨著盤據中國的高壓脊增強,預料電母會加速西移,於明日早段橫過北部灣,下午至晚間登陸越南北部。 |
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS
More convections are wrapping around DIANMU's centre. The storm is expected to intensify in the next 24 hours due to its excellent ventilation channels and high sea temperatures especially in the Gulf of Tonkin. The storm should weaken rapidly after making landfall at northern Vietnam.
更多對流沿電母中心捲動。由於電母的對流通道良好,加上海溫偏高 (尤其是北部灣),預料風暴會於未來 24 小時增強,並於登陸越南北部後快速減弱。 |
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
Strongest winds in Hong Kong were generally observed overnight. As DIANMU moves away, winds are now weakening gradually. Unstable weather associated with DIANMU is expected to affect the territory in the rest of today and tomorrow.
本港風勢於凌晨時份最大。隨著電母遠離,現時風勢已逐漸減弱。與電母相關的不穩定天氣會於今明兩日繼續影響本港。 |
Next Update
下次更新 |
2016/08/19 (Fri 五), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早) |
Other Images
其他圖像 |
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Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
The probabilities are based on the time of observation (11 am); the #3 Strong Wind Signal was replaced by the #1 Standby Signal at 11:15 am.
機率基於觀測時間 (上午 11 時);天文台已於上午 11 時 15 分改發一號戒備信號,取代三號強風信號。
Signal 信號 |
t+12 |
t+24 |
t+36 |
t+48 |
t+60 |
t+72 |
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 |
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G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 |
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Hurricane 颶風 #10 |
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Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。 |
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版] |
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 |
+6
Thu
17h |
+12
Thu
23h |
+18
Fri
05h |
+24
Fri
11h |
+30
Fri
17h |
+36
Fri
23h |
+42
Sat
05h |
+48
Sat
11h |
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
53 |
20 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
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First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 |
47 |
34 |
13 |
4 |
2 |
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#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
48 |
15 |
4 |
1 |
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First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 |
52 |
34 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
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Issuance and cancellation probabilities over forecast interval
預報期內之發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 |
#1+ |
#3+ |
#8+ |
Issued within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內發出有關信號機率 |
-- |
-- |
0 |
Cancelled within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內取消有關信號機率 |
100 |
100 |
-- |
Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此 |