Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖 |

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Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料 |
Tau
時間差 |
HK Time
香港時間 |
Lat.
緯度 |
Long.
經度 |
Movement
移動速度和方向 |
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度 |
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角 |
t+0 |
09/25 (Sun) 14:00 |
19.8°N
| 130.3°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (286°) 24 km/h |
90 kt (167 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 |
E 東 1695 km |
t+12 |
09/26 (Mon) 02:00 |
20.5°N
| 127.7°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (290°) 22 km/h |
100 kt (185 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 |
E 東 1414 km |
t+24 |
09/26 (Mon) 14:00 |
21.3°N
| 125.3°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (290°) 22 km/h |
110 kt (204 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 3) 三級颱風 |
E 東 1153 km |
t+36 |
09/27 (Tue) 02:00 |
22.1°N
| 122.9°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (290°) 22 km/h |
115 kt (213 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 4) 四級颱風 |
E 東 898 km |
t+48 |
09/27 (Tue) 14:00 |
22.9°N
| 120.5°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (283°) 20 km/h |
95 kt (176 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 |
E 東 653 km |
t+72 |
09/28 (Wed) 14:00 |
23.8°N
| 116.0°E
| W 西 (275°) 12 km/h |
60 kt (111 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
NE 東北 251 km |
t+96 |
09/29 (Thu) 14:00 |
24.0°N
| 113.2°E
| W 西 (265°) 10 km/h |
30 kt (56 km/h) |
TD 熱帶低氣壓 |
NNW 西北偏北 213 km |
t+120 |
09/30 (Fri) 14:00 |
23.8°N
| 110.9°E
| N/A |
20 kt (37 km/h) |
LPA 低壓區 |
WNW 西北偏西 374 km |
|
Overview 總覽 |
MEGI is moving WNW steadily and has intensified into a typhoon. At 2 pm, MEGI was centred about 1090 km (590 NM) ESE of Kaohsiung.
鮎魚正穩定向西北偏西移動,並增強為颱風。在下午 2 時,鮎魚集結在高雄東南偏東約 1090 公里 (590 海里)。 |
TC
Naming 氣旋命名 |
MEGI is the 109th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by South Korea, meaning catfish. This name was used in 2004 and 2010, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
鮎魚為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 109 個名字,由南韓提供,為一種在河流或湖泊常見的魚。此名曾於 2004 及 2010 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。 |
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析 |
MEGI will continue to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the next 72 hours. The storm should make landfall in southern Taiwan on Tuesday, and approach southeastern China the next day. MEGI may deflect to the west with a possibility of slight dip to the south after landfall, but there is some variability in model predictions as to the strength of the continental ridge at that time, with some predicting a weaker ridge and suggesting a turn poleward. In any case, MEGI should decelerate significantly after landfall.
鮎魚將於未來 72 小時繼續沿副熱帶高壓脊西南部向西北偏西移動。預料風暴將於周二登陸台灣南部,並於翌日靠近中國東南沿岸。登陸後,預料鮎魚將轉西移,路徑或出現南向量,但各數值模式對於屆時大陸高壓脊強度的預測出現分歧,部分模式預計該脊將較弱,令鮎魚沿較北方向移動。但總體來說,鮎魚應於登陸後明顯減速。 |
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS
MEGI continues to intensify in a decent environment. Some intensification is likely in the next 36 hours as vertical wind shear remains light and outflow channels are maintained, but weakening is expected after that due to lower sea temperatures. The storm will weaken at a faster pace after making landfall at Taiwan and later Fujian or Guangdong, degenerating into an area of low pressure by t+120.
鮎魚繼續於良好環境下增強。由於垂直風切變偏低,輻散通道亦能維持,預料鮎魚較大可能於未來 36 小時增強。隨後鮎魚所在之處海溫較低,預料會略為減弱,其減弱速度會於登陸台灣及福建或廣東後加快,並於 120 小時內成為一低壓區。 |
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
Subsidence associated with MEGI may cause hotter and hazy weather in Hong Kong on Tuesday. As MEGI nears southern China, local winds will strengthen and back to the northwest on Wednesday. There will also be some showers.
與鮎魚相關的下沉氣流或於周二為本港帶來較熱天氣,並有煙霞。隨著鮎魚靠近華南,本港風力將於周三增強,風向逆轉至西北,亦會有驟雨。 |
Next Update
下次更新 |
2016/09/26 (Mon 一), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早) |
Other Images
其他圖像 |
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Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
Signal 信號 |
t+12 |
t+24 |
t+36 |
t+48 |
t+60 |
t+72 |
Standby 戒備 #1 |
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Low 低 |
Medium 中等 |
High 高 |
High 高 |
Strong Wind 強風 #3 |
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Low 低 |
Medium 中等 |
Medium 中等 |
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 |
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Low 低 |
G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 |
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Hurricane 颶風 #10 |
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Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。 |
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版] |
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 |
+6
Sun
20h |
+12
Mon
02h |
+18
Mon
08h |
+24
Mon
14h |
+30
Mon
20h |
+36
Tue
02h |
+42
Tue
08h |
+48
Tue
14h |
+54
Tue
20h |
+60
Wed
02h |
+66
Wed
08h |
+72
Wed
14h |
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
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2 |
12 |
24 |
38 |
46 |
53 |
57 |
59 |
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
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2 |
9 |
13 |
14 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
4 |
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
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1 |
3 |
7 |
14 |
23 |
34 |
41 |
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
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1 |
2 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
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1 |
4 |
7 |
9 |
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
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1 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 |
#1+ |
#3+ |
#8+ |
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 |
63 |
45 |
11 |
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 |
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Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此 |