The remnants of tropical cyclone AERE drifted southwest earlier and reorganized into a tropical depression south of Hainan Island today. The JTWC keeps the storm number 22W while the JMA has issued a gale warning on the system. At 2 pm, 22W was centred about 130 km (65 NM) NE of Da Nang.

熱帶氣旋艾利的殘餘向西南飄移，今天於海南島以南重新發展為熱帶低氣壓。聯合颱風警報中心保留其風暴編號 22W，而日本氣象廳亦已對其發出烈風警報。在下午 2 時，22W 集結在峴港東北約 130 公里 (65 海里)。

N/A 不適用

The Pacific subtropical ridge extends deep into southern China. 22W is currently situated in the southern periphery of this ridge, and is expected to move west towards central Vietnam.

太平洋副熱帶高壓脊西伸至華南地區，22W 處於該脊南沿，預料將向西移並趨向越南中部。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS

22W's convections developed today but the storm is still at its formative stage. Due to its relatively slow movement, some development is possible within the next 12 hours. It should weaken later as it makes landfall in Vietnam, and should dissipate near t+36.

22W 的對流於今天有所發展，但風暴整體發展仍屬於初段。由於風暴移速較慢，預料未來 12 小時或能增強。22W 將於登陸後減弱，並於約 36 小時後消散。

No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.

預料 22W 於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。

2016/10/14 (Fri 五), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

AERE is moving southwest slowly, and has weakened into a tropical depression. At 2 pm, AERE was centred about 340 km (180 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.

艾利向西南緩慢移動，並減弱為熱帶低氣壓。在下午 2 時，艾利集結在香港東南偏東約 340 公里 (180 海里)。

AERE is the 111th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is a Marshallese word for "storm". This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

艾利為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 111 個名字，由美國提供，在馬紹爾語中解作風暴。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用，前者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

AERE is expected to move southwest along the low-level northeasterlies in the next 24 hours.

預料艾利將於未來 24 小時沿低層東北風向西南移動。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most of AERE's deep convections have disappeared, leaving the low-level circulation centre fully exposed. The cool, dry air resulting from the northeast monsoon replenishment will continue to erode the system, causing it to dissipate over water near t+24.

艾利大多數深層對流已經消失，其低層環流中心完全外露。風暴將被東北季候風補充所帶來的乾涼空氣繼續侵蝕，預料會於 24 小時後在海上消散。

AERE and its remnants may bring some rain to the territory. The weather is expected to improve later this week.

艾利及其殘餘將為本港帶來幾陣雨。預料天氣將於本周較後時間好轉。

This is the final bulletin on AERE.

這是本站對艾利的最後一次發佈。

N/A 不適用

AERE has weakened into a tropical storm. At 2 pm, AERE was centred about 350 km (190 NM) E of Hong Kong. The #1 Standby Signal was cancelled at 3:45 am.

艾利已減弱為熱帶風暴。在下午 2 時，艾利集結在香港以東約 350 公里 (190 海里)。天文台於上午 3 時 45 分取消一號戒備信號。

AERE is the 111th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is a Marshallese word for "storm". This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

艾利為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 111 個名字，由美國提供，在馬紹爾語中解作風暴。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用，前者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

AERE is still moving slowly within the pressure col between the subtropical ridge to the east and continental ridge to the west. The northeast monsoon replenishment is now affecting southeastern China and is expected to weaken the system further, allowing it to follow the low-level northeasterlies towards the SW or WSW. The storm is expected to accelerate after t+12.

艾利仍然處於東面副熱帶高壓脊及西面大陸高壓脊間的鞍場，移動緩慢。東北季候風補充正影響中國東南部，預料艾利會進一步減弱，並沿低層東北風向西南或西南偏西移動。預料風暴會於 12 小時後開始加速。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

AERE's deeper convections are now being sheared towards the northeast, gradually leaving the low-level circulation centre exposed. With increasing vertical wind shear, lower sea temperatures and the cool, dry air from the northeast monsoon, AERE will continue to weaken and may dissipate over water at around t+72 as it nears Hainan.

艾利較深層對流正向東北切離，低層環流中心開始外露。由於垂直風切變增加而海溫下降，加上東北季候風帶來較乾涼空氣，預料艾利將持續減弱，並可能於 72 小時後於海南附近的海面上消散。

Due to the combined effect of AERE and the northeast monsoon replenishment, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong in the next few days, with strong force winds in offshore waters and on high ground. There will also be some rain. The weather should improve later this week.

受艾利及東北季候風補充的共同影響，預料香港未來數天風勢較大，離岸及高地吹強風，亦會有幾陣雨。預料天氣將於本周較後時間好轉。

2016/10/10 (Mon 一), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Based on AERE's forecast track and intensity, it is more likely for the HKO to issue the Strong Monsoon Signal if northeasterly winds rise to above strong force level.

基於艾利的預測路徑及強度，如東北風增強至強風程度，天文台較大可能發出強烈季候風信號。

AERE has remained quasi-stationary over the past 24 hours, with little change in intensity. At 2 pm, AERE was centred about 270 km (140 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.

艾利於過去 24 小時繼續停滯，強度亦沒甚變化。在下午 2 時，艾利集結在香港東南偏東約 270 公里 (140 海里)。

AERE is the 111th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is a Marshallese word for "storm". This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

艾利為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 111 個名字，由美國提供，在馬紹爾語中解作風暴。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用，前者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

The cancelling of steering forces from the Pacific subtropical ridge east of AERE and the continental ridge west of it has rendered the storm almost motionless in northern South China Sea. The recent turn to the northeast can likely be attributed to a strengthening of the subtropical ridge south of AERE. With the arrival of the northeast monsoon replenishment, AERE is expected to weaken later tomorrow and will be subjected to low-level northeasterlies. The storm should then move SW, later turning to WSW towards Hainan Island as the subtropical ridge builds back.

由於艾利東面太平洋副熱帶高壓脊及西面大陸高壓脊的流場互相抵銷，艾利繼續於南海北部徘徊。同時，因副高於艾利以南有所增強，風暴最近向東北緩慢移動。隨著東北季候風補充的到來，預料艾利會於明日稍後減弱，並將沿低層東北風向西南移動。隨後副高再度西伸，風暴將向西南偏西移動，趨向海南島一帶。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS W0.5/12 HRS

AERE is a small but tight system as seen from radar images. The storm is showing signs of weakening; the arriving northeast monsoon will cause cooler and drier air to intrude the system and a continual weakening trend is expected. AERE will possibly have weakened into a tropical depression by the time it reaches Hainan Island.

從雷達圖可見，雖然艾利較為細小，但其近中心對流緊密。風暴開始呈減弱之勢，而東北季候風到來將使艾利受較涼及乾燥空氣入侵，預料風暴將持續減弱。艾利到達海南島之時或已減弱至熱帶低氣壓強度。

Due to the combined effect of AERE and the northeast monsoon replenishment, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong in the next few days, with strong force winds in offshore waters and on high ground. There will also be some showers. According to the present forecast track, AERE is expected to weaken as it turns southwest, and significant impact is unlikely.

受艾利及東北季候風補充的共同影響，預料香港未來數天風勢較大，離岸及高地吹強風，亦會有驟雨。按照目前預測路徑，艾利將於轉向西南之時減弱，對本港構成嚴重影響的可能性較低。

2016/10/09 (Sun 日), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

AERE has intensified into a severe tropical storm and has decelerated significantly. At 2 pm, AERE was centred about 250 km (140 NM) SE of Hong Kong.

艾利已增強為強烈熱帶風暴，並明顯減速。在下午 2 時，艾利集結在香港東南約 250 公里 (140 海里)。

AERE is the 111th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is a Marshallese word for "storm". This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

艾利為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 111 個名字，由美國提供，在馬紹爾語中解作風暴。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用，前者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

The Pacific subtropical ridge is retreating, while the continental ridge is building in Indochina. However, AERE is still close to the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and therefore it has gained latitude in the past few hours. AERE will remain almost stationary in the next 48 hours in the pressure col, but now a slight poleward track is expected, bringing it closer to Hong Kong. After t+48, a replenishment of the northeast monsoon will gradually weaken the system, and the low-level northeasterlies will push the storm towards the SW or WSW. AERE is expected to accelerate after t+72 and move towards Hainan Island.

太平洋副熱帶高壓脊正減弱，而大陸高壓脊正於中南半島建立。由於艾利仍然較為接近副高西沿，它於過去數小時有所北移。預料艾利將於未來 48 小時在鞍場中停滯，但此佈預測期間艾利會稍為北移，使之更靠近香港。48 小時後，東北季候風補充將令系統減弱，艾利將沿低層東北風向西南或西南偏西移動。預料艾利會於 72 小時後加速移動，趨向海南島一帶。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

The upper-level divergence has improved and allowed AERE to intensify at a quicker pace than expected. AERE is still small but convections are wrapping tightly around its centre. Given the recent development, further intensification is likely in the next 12 to 24 hours. However, the arriving northeast monsoon will cause cooler and drier air to intrude the system, and a weakening trend should commence near t+36. AERE will possibly have weakened into a tropical depression by the time it reaches Hainan Island.

高層輻散有所改善，艾利增強速度比預期快。雖然艾利仍然較細，但其中心周圍對流緊密。基於此發展趨勢，預料艾利較大機會於未來 12 至 24 小時進一步增強。可是，東北季候風到來將令艾利受較涼及乾燥空氣入侵，因此預料風暴會於約 36 小時後開始減弱。艾利到達海南島之時或已減弱至熱帶低氣壓強度。

Due to the combined effect of AERE and the northeast monsoon replenishment, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong in the next few days; there will also be some showers. As AERE's circulation is relatively small, there will only be significant impact if the storm comes very close. Although AERE's forecast track has been adjusted northwards, significant impact is still not very likely at this point given that the storm will probably weaken when the northeast monsoon replenishment arrives.

受艾利及東北季候風補充的共同影響，預料香港未來數天風勢較大，亦會有驟雨。由於艾利環流較細，除非風暴非常接近，否則它對香港的影響有限。雖然艾利的預測路徑有所北調，但由於預料東北季候風補充到達時風暴會減弱，此情況發生機會仍較小。

2016/10/08 (Sat 六), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

Given the northward movement, the likelihood of issuing #3 Strong Wind Signal is now higher. However, if AERE shows signs of weakening before going further west, it is possible that the Strong Monsoon Signal is issued instead.

由於艾利路徑較北，發出三號強風信號的機會有所增加。但如果艾利於進一步西移前呈減弱之勢，天文台有可能改為發出強烈季候風信號。

99W was assigned the storm number 22W by the JTWC. It has also intensified into a tropical storm, and was named AERE. At 2 pm, AERE was centred about 530 km (290 NM) ESE of Hong Kong.

99W 被聯合颱風警報中心給予風暴編號 22W。 該氣旋亦已增強為熱帶風暴，被命名為艾利。在下午 2 時，艾利集結在香港東南偏東約 530 公里 (290 海里)。

AERE is the 111th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by the United States, and is a Marshallese word for "storm". This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the former necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.

艾利為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 111 個名字，由美國提供，在馬紹爾語中解作風暴。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用，前者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。

The Pacific subtropical ridge extends into southeastern China, and AERE is moving west along the southern edge of this extension. The ridge is expected to weaken, while a continental ridge will build in Indochina. This places AERE in a pressure col and the storm will decelerate near t+12. Due to the continental ridge and the replenishment of the northeast monsoon, AERE may dip south near t+48 or t+72. Numerical models are predicting the subtropical ridge to build back at later taus, propelling AERE to the west at that time.

太平洋副熱帶高壓脊西伸至中國東南部，艾利正於其南沿向西移動。預料該脊將減弱，同時大陸高壓脊將於中南半島建立，這將令艾利處於鞍場，因此預計風暴於 12 小時後會減速。受大陸高壓脊及東北季候風補充的影響，艾利或於 48 至 72 小時後稍為南移。數值模式預料副高會於預測後期重新建立，屆時將令艾利向西推進。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Although AERE is in warm seas with little vertical wind shear, its outflow channels are rather weak and the storm is struggling to develop. AERE is expected to only intensify slightly in the next 48 to 72 hours as environmental conditions are marginal. The drier air from the northeast monsoon and further restriction in divergence due to the extension of the subtropical ridge at later taus will likely result in AERE weakening as it moves closer to Hainan Island.

雖然艾利所處洋面溫暖且垂直風切變微弱，但其輻散通道較弱，風暴未能明顯發展。由於周邊環境一般，預料艾利只能於未來 48 至 72 小時稍為增強。預測後期，受東北季候風帶來的較乾燥氣流影響，加上副高重新伸展令輻散進一步受制，艾利可能於靠近海南島時減弱。

Due to the combined effect of AERE and the northeast monsoon replenishment, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong towards the weekend and early next week. There will also be some showers. As AERE's circulation is relatively small, there will only be significant impact if the storm comes very close.

受艾利及東北季候風補充的共同影響，預料香港周末及下周初風勢較大，亦會有驟雨。由於艾利環流較細，除非風暴非常接近，否則它對香港的影響有限。

2016/10/07 (Fri 五), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)

The HK Observatory will consider issuing the #1 Standby Signal tonight.

香港天文台將於今晚考慮發出一號戒備信號。

Tropical disturbance 99W in the Phiilippine Sea has intensified into a tropical depression. At 2 pm, 99W was centred about 660 km (350 NM) NE of Manila.

於菲律賓以東海域的熱帶擾動 99W 已增強為熱帶低氣壓。在下午 2 時，99W 集結在馬尼拉東北約 660 公里 (350 海里)。

N/A 不適用

99W is situated in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge anchored southeast of Japan. The storm is expected to move WNW quickly in the next 24 hours, entering the South China Sea. A continental ridge is expected to build in Indochina after t+24, placing 99W in a pressure col. The storm is thus expected to decelerate near t+36. Due to the continental ridge and the replenishment of the northeast monsoon, 99W may dip south in the latter part of the forecast period.

副熱帶高壓脊中心位於日本東南方，99W 處於該脊西南部，預料會於未來 24 小時向西北偏西快速移動，進入南海。24 小時後，預料大陸高壓脊將於中南半島建立，這將令 99W 處於鞍場，因此預計風暴於 36 小時後會減速。受大陸高壓脊及東北季候風補充的影響，99W 於預測後期或會略為南移。

Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T1.5/1.5/INT OBS

99W is rather asymmetrical with most of its convections flaring in the northwestern quadrant. Although sea temperatures and shear conditions are favourable, it will take some time for the system to consolidate. Slow intensification is expected in the next 48 to 72 hours. There is substantial uncertainty in the intensity estimates, with some models suggesting minimal intensification throughout the forecast period.

99W 結構較不對稱，大部分對流於風暴西北方。雖然海溫及垂直風切變良好，但預計風暴需時整合，預料於未來 48 至 72 小時間增強速度較慢。各數值模式對於 99W 強度估計有較大分歧，部分模式預料風暴於整個預測期內只能略為增強。

Due to the combined effect of strengthening northeast monsoon and 99W, it will be rather windy in Hong Kong towards the weekend. There may also be some showers.

受東北季候風增強及 99W 的共同影響，預料香港周末風勢較大，亦可能會有驟雨。

2016/10/06 (Thu 四), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早)