Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖 |

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Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料 |
Tau
時間差 |
HK Time
香港時間 |
Lat.
緯度 |
Long.
經度 |
Movement
移動速度和方向 |
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度 |
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角 |
t+0 |
10/18 (Tue) 14:00 |
19.1°N
| 109.9°E
| NW 西北 (310°) 16 km/h |
85 kt (157 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 |
SW 西南 569 km |
t+12 |
10/19 (Wed) 02:00 |
20.2°N
| 108.5°E
| NW 西北 (325°) 14 km/h |
70 kt (130 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 |
WSW 西南偏西 632 km |
t+24 |
10/19 (Wed) 14:00 |
21.4°N
| 107.6°E
| NNW 西北偏北 (343°) 12 km/h |
60 kt (111 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
W 西 685 km |
t+36 |
10/20 (Thu) 02:00 |
22.6°N
| 107.2°E
| N 北 (351°) 10 km/h |
40 kt (74 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
W 西 717 km |
t+48 |
10/20 (Thu) 14:00 |
23.7°N
| 107.0°E
| N/A |
20 kt (37 km/h) |
LPA 低壓區 |
WNW 西北偏西 750 km |
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Overview 總覽 |
SARIKA has made landfall at Hainan and is now crossing the island. At 2 pm, SARIKA was centred about 570 km (310 NM) SW of Hong Kong. The #3 Strong Wind Signal remains in force.
莎莉嘉已於海南登陸,正橫過該島。在下午 2 時,莎莉嘉集結在香港西南約 570 公里 (310 海里)。三號強風信號仍然生效。 |
TC
Naming 氣旋命名 |
SARIKA is the 113th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Cambodia, meaning singing bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #1 Standby Signal in Hong Kong.
莎莉嘉為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 113 個名字,由柬埔寨提供,意思為啼鳥。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出一號戒備信號。 |
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析 |
The western edge of the subtropical ridge has retreated to central China. SARIKA is moving northwest in the southwestern periphery of the ridge, and is expected to turn more poleward with reducing speed in the next 24 hours. The storm should make landfall near the Vietnam-China border tomorrow, and then move north into inland areas.
副熱帶高壓脊西沿已東退至華中。莎莉嘉正沿該脊西南部向西北移動,預料其移向將於未來 24 小時北偏,速度減慢。風暴將於明日登陸中越邊境一帶,隨後北移並深入內陸。 |
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: N/A 不適用
SARIKA's intensity has been rather stable over the past 24 hours. The storm is expected to weaken as it crosses Hainan. Due to land interaction, it will continue to weaken in the Gulf of Tonkin, and more rapidly after it makes its final landfall. It should degenerate into an area of low pressure by t+48.
莎莉嘉的強度於過去 24 小時大致維持,預料風暴將於橫過海南島時減弱。受地形影響,預料莎莉嘉會於北部灣繼續減弱,最後一次登陸後減弱速度加快。風暴將於 48 小時內成為一低壓區。 |
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
Strong easterly winds are currently observed at offshore locations and on high ground, occasionally reaching gale force. Winds will remain strong for the rest of the day, but as SARIKA weakens and recedes gradually, local winds should diminish early tomorrow and may veer to the southeast. Showers, sometimes heavy, will continue to affect Hong Kong today and tomorrow.
現時本港離岸及高地吹強東風,間中吹烈風。預料今日餘下時間風勢仍然較強,但隨著莎莉嘉減弱及逐漸遠離,本港風勢將於明日緩和,風向或順轉至東南。香港於今明兩天將繼續受驟雨影響,雨勢有時頗大。 |
Next Update
下次更新 |
2016/10/19 (Wed 三), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早) |
Other Images
其他圖像 |
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Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
The HK Observatory has indicated that it will consider replacing the #3 Strong Wind Signal by the Strong Monsoon Signal later today. Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone HAIMA that is expected to enter the South China Sea later this week.
香港天文台表示將於今天較後時間考慮改發強烈季候風信號以取代三號強風信號。註:以下概率不包括熱帶氣旋海馬預測於本周較後時間進入南海的部分。
Signal 信號 |
t+12 |
t+24 |
t+36 |
t+48 |
t+60 |
t+72 |
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Strong Wind 強風 #3 (Cnl. 取消) |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 |
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G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 |
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Hurricane 颶風 #10 |
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Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。 |
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版] |
Note: The following probabilities do not take into account tropical cyclone HAIMA that is expected to enter the South China Sea later this week.
註:以下概率不包括熱帶氣旋海馬預測於本周較後時間進入南海的部分。
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 |
+6
Tue
20h |
+12
Wed
02h |
+18
Wed
08h |
+24
Wed
14h |
+30
Wed
20h |
+36
Thu
02h |
+42
Thu
08h |
+48
Thu
14h |
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
52 |
21 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
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First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 |
48 |
31 |
11 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
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#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
40 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
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First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 |
60 |
30 |
8 |
1 |
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Issuance and cancellation probabilities over forecast interval
預報期內之發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 |
#1+ |
#3+ |
#8+ |
Issued within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內發出有關信號機率 |
-- |
-- |
0 |
Cancelled within next 48 hours 未來 48 小時內取消有關信號機率 |
100 |
100 |
-- |
Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此 |