Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖 |

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Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料 |
Tau
時間差 |
HK Time
香港時間 |
Lat.
緯度 |
Long.
經度 |
Movement
移動速度和方向 |
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度 |
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角 |
t+0 |
10/20 (Thu) 14:00 |
19.0°N
| 118.9°E
| NW 西北 (306°) 24 km/h |
90 kt (167 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 |
SE 東南 613 km |
t+12 |
10/21 (Fri) 02:00 |
20.5°N
| 116.7°E
| NW 西北 (320°) 24 km/h |
85 kt (157 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 2) 二級颱風 |
SE 東南 329 km |
t+24 |
10/21 (Fri) 14:00 |
22.5°N
| 114.9°E
| N 北 (351°) 22 km/h |
80 kt (148 km/h) |
TY (Cat. 1) 一級颱風 |
ENE 東北偏東 78 km |
t+36 |
10/22 (Sat) 02:00 |
24.8°N
| 114.5°E
| NNE 東北偏北 (024°) 22 km/h |
50 kt (93 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
N 北 280 km |
t+48 |
10/22 (Sat) 14:00 |
27.0°N
| 115.6°E
| ENE 東北偏東 (060°) 32 km/h |
30 kt (56 km/h) |
TD 熱帶低氣壓 |
NNE 東北偏北 542 km |
t+72 |
10/23 (Sun) 14:00 |
30.3°N
| 122.6°E
| N/A |
20 kt (37 km/h) |
LPA 低壓區 |
NE 東北 1222 km |
|
Overview 總覽 |
HAIMA crossed Luzon overnight and is now turning northwest in the South China Sea as a category 2 typhoon. At 2 pm, HAIMA was centred about 610 km (330 NM) SE of Hong Kong. The HK Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 8:20 am today.
海馬凌晨橫過呂宋,現在正以二級颱風強度於南海向西北移動。在下午 2 時,海馬集結在香港東南約 610 公里 (330 海里)。香港天文台於上午 8 時 20 分發出一號戒備信號。 |
TC
Naming 氣旋命名 |
HAIMA is the 114th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by China, meaning seahorse. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter occurrence necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
海馬為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 114 個名字,由中國提供。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用,後者令香港天文台發出三號強風信號。 |
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析 |
Although weakened, the subtropical ridge is still covering southeastern China and Taiwan. HAIMA is in its southwestern periphery and is expected to move northwest in the next 24 hours towards southern Guangdong, making landfall near t+24. The storm will gradually turn poleward and cross the ridge axis shortly after landfall, before recurving towards the northeast along the northwestern periphery of the ridge with increasing speed.
雖然副熱帶高壓脊有所減弱,但它仍然覆蓋中國東南部及台灣一帶。海馬處於該脊西南部,預料會於未來 24 小時向西北移動,趨向廣東南部並於約 24 小時後登陸。風暴的移向將逐步北偏,並於登陸後不久橫過副高脊線,隨後沿副高西北部向東北加速移動。 |
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T4.5/5.0/W2.0/24 HRS
HAIMA's compact eye disappeared following landfall at northern Philippines last night, and has subsequently turned into a larger banding eye with slightly more convections in the southern semicircle. Sea temperatures are quite high in northeastern South China Sea, but are relatively lower near the shore. Vertical wind shear remains low to moderate. As ocean heat content decreases, HAIMA is expected to weaken in the next 24 hours, but it will likely make landfall as a typhoon and remains a significant threat to southern China. Rapid weakening ensues after landfall.
海馬的緊密風眼於昨晚登陸菲律賓北部時消失,其後發展為一較大雲捲風眼,風暴南半圓對流略多。南海東北部海溫仍然較高,但近岸相對清涼,而垂直風切變維持於低至中等水平。由於海洋熱含量較低,預料海馬將於未來 24 小時減弱,但仍以颱風強度登陸,對華南構成重大威脅。海馬將於登陸後快速減弱。 |
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
Local winds are expected to strengthen tonight, coming in from the north. The current forecast favours a landfall east of Hong Kong. As a result, the weather is expected to deteriorate rapidly tomorrow morning, with strong to gale force northwesterly winds. There will also be heavy squally showers. HAIMA should be closest to Hong Kong tomorrow afternoon; winds are expected to back to the southwest later that day. Showers should diminish on Saturday.
At this point, a direct hit scenario cannot be ruled out. If that happens, cyclonic winds of up to hurricane force may be observed in Hong Kong. Please complete all precautionary measures and refer regularly to official forecasts and latest information on the storm.
本港今晚將吹北風,風勢逐漸加強。現時預測海馬會於香港以東登陸;明日早上天氣將急速轉壞,吹強風至烈風程度西北風,並有狂風大驟雨。海馬將於明日下午最接近香港,預料風向將於明日較後時間逆轉至西南。驟雨將於周六減少。
現時仍然未能排除風暴直趨香港的可能性。如此情況發生,香港有可能吹達颶風程度的旋風。請各位盡早做好防風措施,並定時留意官方預測及風暴最新消息。 |
Next Update
下次更新 |
2016/10/21 (Fri 五), morning 上午 (or earlier 或更早) |
Other Images
其他圖像 |
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Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
The HK Observatory will consider issuing the #3 Strong Wind Signal tonight. With the current track forecast, the #8 Gale or Storm Signal is very likely during daytime tomorrow. However, whether even higher signals are needed depends on HAIMA's exact landfall location, which cannot be confidently determined at this point.
香港天文台將於今晚考慮發出三號強風信號。按照目前預測路徑,明日日間八號烈風或暴風信號生效的機會非常高。是否需要改發更高信號取決於海馬的確實登陸地點,現時仍然未能完全確定。
Signal 信號 |
t+12 |
t+24 |
t+36 |
t+48 |
t+60 |
t+72 |
Standby 戒備 #1 (Cnl. 取消) |
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Medium 中等 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
Strong Wind 強風 #3 |
Very High 極高 |
Very High 極高 |
High 高 |
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Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 |
Low 低 |
Very High 極高 |
Low 低 |
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G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 |
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Medium 中等 |
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Hurricane 颶風 #10 |
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Low 低 |
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Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。 |
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版] |
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 |
+6
Thu
20h |
+12
Fri
02h |
+18
Fri
08h |
+24
Fri
14h |
+30
Fri
20h |
+36
Sat
02h |
+42
Sat
08h |
+48
Sat
14h |
+54
Sat
20h |
+60
Sun
02h |
+66
Sun
08h |
+72
Sun
14h |
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
96 |
74 |
25 |
4 |
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First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率 |
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4 |
22 |
49 |
21 |
4 |
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#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
22 |
69 |
91 |
97 |
94 |
73 |
24 |
3 |
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First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
22 |
47 |
22 |
6 |
1 |
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#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
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5 |
51 |
82 |
65 |
18 |
2 |
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First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
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5 |
45 |
32 |
3 |
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Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 |
#1+ |
#3+ |
#8+ |
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 |
-- |
98 |
86 |
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 |
100 |
-- |
-- |
Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此 |