Forecast
Track 預測路徑圖 |

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Forecast
Positions 預測位置資料 |
Tau
時間差 |
HK Time
香港時間 |
Lat.
緯度 |
Long.
經度 |
Movement
移動速度和方向 |
1-min Average Strength
一分鐘平均強度 |
Distance/Bearing from HK
與香港的距離和方位角 |
t+0 |
11/25 (Fri) 14:00 |
11.6°N
| 121.2°E
| WNW 西北偏西 (298°) 20 km/h |
35 kt (65 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
SSE 東南偏南 1404 km |
t+12 |
11/26 (Sat) 02:00 |
12.6°N
| 119.3°E
| NW 西北 (322°) 18 km/h |
40 kt (74 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
SSE 東南偏南 1207 km |
t+24 |
11/26 (Sat) 14:00 |
14.1°N
| 118.1°E
| N 北 (350°) 15 km/h |
50 kt (93 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
SSE 東南偏南 1001 km |
t+36 |
11/27 (Sun) 02:00 |
15.7°N
| 117.8°E
| N 北 (360°) 12 km/h |
55 kt (102 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
SSE 東南偏南 826 km |
t+48 |
11/27 (Sun) 14:00 |
17.0°N
| 117.8°E
| NNE 東北偏北 (025°) 4 km/h |
55 kt (102 km/h) |
STS 強烈熱帶風暴 |
SSE 東南偏南 701 km |
t+72 |
11/28 (Mon) 14:00 |
17.8°N
| 118.2°E
| WSW 西南偏西 (240°) 16 km/h |
45 kt (83 km/h) |
TS 熱帶風暴 |
SE 東南 653 km |
t+96 |
11/29 (Tue) 14:00 |
16.0°N
| 115.0°E
| N/A |
20 kt (37 km/h) |
LPA 低壓區 |
S 南 705 km |
|
Overview 總覽 |
Tropical disturbance 98W intensified into tropical depression 29W in southeastern Philippines last night. It intensified into a tropical storm today, and was named TOKAGE. At 2 pm, TOKAGE was centred about 330 km (180 NM) S of Manila.
熱帶擾動 98W 昨晚於菲律賓東南部增強為熱帶低氣壓 29W。29W 今天增強為熱帶風暴,被命名為蝎虎。在下午 2 時,蝎虎集結在馬尼拉以南約 330 公里 (180 海里)。 |
TC
Naming 氣旋命名 |
TOKAGE is the 117th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Japan, meaning the constellation Lacerta. This name was used in 2004 and 2011.
蝎虎為熱帶氣旋名稱列表中第 117 個名字,由日本提供,為一星座。此名曾於 2004 及 2011 年使用。 |
Movement
Analysis 路徑分析 |
TOKAGE is moving WNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge that covers much of the tropical northwest Pacific. A mid-latitude trough is now eroding the ridge and its western edge is expected to retreat slightly, allowing TOKAGE to turn poleward in central South China Sea just off the coast of western Philippines. At higher latitudes, the storm will encounter much cooler and drier air mass from the northeast monsoon, leading to its decay. Once TOKAGE weakens, it will follow the low-level northeasterlies and accelerate to the southwest near t+72.
副熱帶高壓脊正覆蓋熱帶西北太平洋大部分洋面,蝎虎正沿其西南部向西北偏西移動。一道西風槽正侵蝕副高,預料其西部邊緣將稍為東退,令蝎虎於菲律賓西部對開的南海中部北移。隨著蝎虎到達較高緯度,它將受東北季候風的影響,較乾冷的氣團將令風暴減弱。減弱後,蝎虎將於約 72 小時後沿低層東北風向西南加速移動。 |
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析 |
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
TOKAGE is a compact system and has tightly banding convections around its centre, although slightly more convections are displaced to the west. Intensification is likely in the short term as TOKAGE enters the warm South China Sea with decent upper-level divergence. The storm will start to weaken after t+48 as it stagnates at a higher latitude and is affected by much higher vertical wind shear and cooler sea temperatures. A rapid decay is expected and the storm will likely dissipate over water near t+96.
蝎虎結構緊密,中心附近螺旋雲帶清晰可見,但較多對流集中於風暴西面。隨著蝎虎進入溫暖的南海,加上高層輻散良好,預料蝎虎能於短期內增強。風暴於 48 小時後將到達較高緯度並逐漸處於停滯狀態,屆時它將受較冷空氣及非常高的垂直風切變影響,預料會快速減弱並於約 96 小時後於海上消散。 |
Effects on
Hong Kong 對香港的影響 |
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
預料蝎虎於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成影響。 |
Next Update
下次更新 |
2016/11/26 (Sat 六), afternoon 下午 (or earlier 或更早) |
Other Images
其他圖像 |
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Probabilities
of TC Signals from HKO within the next 3 days 未來三天香港天文台發出 / 取消熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率 |
Signal 信號 |
t+12 |
t+24 |
t+36 |
t+48 |
t+60 |
t+72 |
Standby 戒備 #1 |
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Low 低 |
Low 低 |
Low 低 |
Strong Wind 強風 #3 |
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Gale/Storm 烈或暴風 #8 |
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G/S Incr. 烈或暴風增強 #9 |
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Hurricane 颶風 #10 |
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Notes 註:
1) For issuance, "Signal" column represents having issued that signal or above. 有關發出機率,首欄指已發出該信號或更高信號。
2) "Low" = Probability from 5 to 20 per cent; "Medium" = 20 to 50%; "High" = 50 to 80%; "V High" = 80% or above.
"低" = 5% - 20% 的機率; "中等" = 20 - 50%; "高" = 50 - 80%; "極高" = 80% 或以上。 |
Statistical Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities [Experimental] 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋警告信號機率 [試驗版] |
6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差 |
+6
Fri
20h |
+12
Sat
02h |
+18
Sat
08h |
+24
Sat
14h |
+30
Sat
20h |
+36
Sun
02h |
+42
Sun
08h |
+48
Sun
14h |
+54
Sun
20h |
+60
Mon
02h |
+66
Mon
08h |
+72
Mon
14h |
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
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1 |
6 |
12 |
22 |
25 |
28 |
30 |
31 |
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
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1 |
5 |
6 |
10 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高 |
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率 |
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1 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率 |
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1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast
預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率 |
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號 |
#1+ |
#3+ |
#8+ |
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率 |
37 |
6 |
0 |
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率 |
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Explanatory material: Press here 說明文檔:按此 |