NOCK-TEN is the 118th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Laos, meaning bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
NOCK-TEN will move southwest in the next 12 hours along the low-level northeasterlies.
洛坦將於未來 12 小時沿低層東北風向西南移動。
Intensity
Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number 現時的 T 號碼: T1.0/1.5/W2.0/24 HRS
NOCK-TEN's low-level circulation centre is fully exposed with virtually no deep-layered convections afloat. The storm will continue to weaken in cool seas with strong vertical wind shear and dry airmasses, and is expected to dissipate in the South China Sea soon.
NOCK-TEN is the 118th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Laos, meaning bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
NOCK-TEN's low-level circulation centre is decoupling from the upper-level structure and has started drifting WSW due to the northeast monsoon currently affecting the South China Sea. The storm is expected to accelerate towards the southwest in the rest of the forecast period, moving along the prevailing northeasterly winds.
NOCK-TEN is facing rather strong vertical wind shear, leading to the separation of the lower- and upper-level structures. The storm will continue to weaken in cool seas with drier air from the monsoon, and will likely become an area of low pressure by t+36.
NOCK-TEN crossed central Philippines last night and earlier today, and has just emerged into the South China Sea. It has also weakened significantly into a category 1 typhoon. At 2 pm, NOCK-TEN was centred about 130 km (70 NM) WSW of Manila.
NOCK-TEN is the 118th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Laos, meaning bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge has strengthened slightly and NOCK-TEN is expected to move WNW along the southwestern periphery of the ridge in the next 12 hours. The storm will decelerate and turn southwest later as it weakens due to the arriving intense surge of northeast monsoon, and follows the low-level northeasterlies.
NOCK-TEN's eye has disappeared and the central dense overcast is seriously disrupted by the Philippine landmass. The storm will continue to weaken as it enters cooler seas with higher vertical wind shear due to the arriving monsoon. The system should reduce into an area of low pressure by t+72.
NOCK-TEN remained as a super typhoon today and is about to make landfall in eastern Philippines. At 2 pm, NOCK-TEN was centred about 460 km (250 NM) ESE of Manila.
NOCK-TEN is the 118th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Laos, meaning bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
As the subtropical ridge north of NOCK-TEN strengthens, the storm is expected to traverse central Philippines at a quicker pace in the next 24 hours. NOCK-TEN is forecast to move WNW briefly along the periphery of the ridge after it emerges into the South China Sea. After t+48, a strong surge of northeast monsoon will cause the storm to weaken considerably, allowing it to follow the low-level northeasterlies towards the southwest.
NOCK-TEN's central dense overcast has maintained its depth over the past 24 hours, but its eye is not clear enough to warrant category 5 strength. The storm will weaken as it crosses landmass, and later as it enters the cooler South China Sea with elevated shear resulting from an intense cold surge arriving southern China in the next few days. The system should reduce into an area of low pressure by t+96.
Note: This bulletin was reconstructed on December 25, 2016 as the original version was lost in the file handling process.
注意：由於原版本於檔案處理時遺失，以下發佈為於 2016 年 12 月 25 日重新編寫的版本。
NOCK-TEN deepened rapidly last night and this morning. It is now a category 4 super typhoon, moving westward at reduced speeds. At 2 pm, NOCK-TEN was centred about 790 km (430 NM) E of Manila.
NOCK-TEN is the 118th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Laos, meaning bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
NOCK-TEN is south of a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge, and is expected to move westward slowly in the next 24 hours. The ridge is expected to strengthen after that, and NOCK-TEN will move at a higher speed across central Philippines. NOCK-TEN may track WNW briefly in the South China Sea, along the periphery of the subtropical ridge, before deflecting to the southwest due to the arriving monsoon.
NOCK-TEN's has developed a central dense overcast with very low cloud-top temperatures, within which a small, round eye is embedded. NOCK-TEN is expected to have reached its peak intensity, and may weaken slightly before landfall. NOCK-TEN will weaken at a faster rate as it crosses landmass, and later as it enters the cooler South China Sea with elevated shear resulting from an intense cold surge arriving southern China next week. The system should reduce into a tropical depression by the end of the forecast period.
NOCK-TEN is the 118th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Laos, meaning bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
NOCK-TEN is expected to move WNW along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the next 24 hours. A slight weakness in the ridge will cause NOCK-TEN to decelerate, but the storm will maintain a generally westward motion. NOCK-TEN will cross the Philippines between Sunday and Monday, and will then enter South China Sea. At that time, NOCK-TEN may track WNW briefly along the periphery of the subtropical ridge, before deflecting to the WSW due to the arriving monsoon.
NOCK-TEN's core can be seen developing with tight convections in its periphery. The storm is expected to intensify further in very warm seas with low to moderate vertical wind shear within the next 48 hours. NOCK-TEN will weaken as it crosses landmass, and further as it enters the cooler South China Sea with elevated shear resulting from an intense cold surge arriving southern China next week.
30W has been moving northwest in the past 24 hours. It has intensified into a tropical storm, and was named NOCK-TEN. At 2 pm, NOCK-TEN was centred about 30 km (15 NM) WSW of Yap.
NOCK-TEN is the 118th name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Laos, meaning bird. This name was used in 2004 and 2011, with the latter necessitating the #3 Strong Wind Signal in Hong Kong.
As NOCK-TEN edges closer to the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the Pacific, the storm is expected to accelerate towards the WNW in the next 24 hours. The ridge is forecast to weaken slightly near t+48, leading to a decrease in NOCK-TEN's track speed while maintaining a generally westward motion. The storm will cross the Philippines on Christmas day, before emerging into the South China Sea the day after.
NOCK-TEN's convections have tightened and become more symmetrical over the past 24 hours. The storm is expected to intensify gradually in very warm seas with low to moderate vertical wind shear, making landfall at the Philippines as a typhoon. NOCK-TEN will weaken as it crosses landmass, and further as it enters the cooler South China Sea with elevated shear resulting from an intense cold surge arriving southern China next week.
Tropical disturbance 92W over the northwest Pacific has intensified into tropical depression 30W. At 2 pm, 30W was centred about 510 km (280 NM) SE of Yap.
A broad subtropical ridge is located north of 30W. Under its influence, 30W is expected to move WNW at an increasing speed in the next 36 hours. The storm may start to deflect westward after that, approaching eastern Philippines on Saturday.
30W's convections are flaring near its centre but are more concentrated in its northern semicircle. A wind field analysis this morning shows a clear low-level circulation centre. In very warm seas with low to moderate vertical wind shear, 30W is expected to strengthen steadily in the next 72 hours.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
