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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 201916W (KAJIKI 劍魚) [Refresh 更新]

201916W (KAJIKI 劍魚) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on September 14, 2019; final version issued on November 14, 2019)
(初稿於 2019 年 9 月 14 日發出，最後版本於 2019 年 7 月 24 日上載)

Brief profile of KAJIKI | 劍魚小檔案:

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2019/09/01 (SUN) 08:40 HKT	SE 490 km	W at 25 km/h	45 km/h (25 knots, TD)
	2019/09/01 (SUN) 16:20 HKT	SSE 340 km	W at 25 km/h	55 km/h (30 knots, TD)
	2019/09/02 (MON) 10:40 HKT	SW 580 km	WSW at 20 km/h	55 km/h (30 knots, TD)
	2019/09/03 (TUE) 09:20 HKT	SW 990 km	Slowly	55 km/h (30 knots, TD)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track with signal information 附有熱帶氣旋警告信號資料的路徑圖:

(Track figure courtesy of Lorenzo. Data from HKO. 鳴謝 Lorenzo 提供路徑圖，資料取自天文台)

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

Tropical disturbance 91W entered eastern South China Sea on August 31. Following a period of convection development near the centre of the disturbance, the JMA issued a gale warning at 8 pm while the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert at 2 am September 1. Numerical model forecasts predicted that 91W would move west along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and turn southwest as it approached Hainan Island. A period of stagnation would then ensue due to the formation of another tropical cyclone near the Philippines.

91W picked up speed towards the west during the day of September 1, and reached southern Hainan in the morning of September 2. The NMC track suggested that 91W moved across southern Hainan and turned southwest into western South China Sea after 2 pm that day. Convective bursts appeared near the centre of the system and its spiraling characteristics improved during the night.

91W continued to move southwest in the small hours of September 3, and made landfall near Hue, Vietnam near 2 am. The JTWC upgraded 91W into tropical depression 16W at this time, while the JMA even upgraded it into tropical storm KAJIKI. There were significant differences between their forecast tracks as numerical models were divergent on the storm motion. At that time, tropical disturbance 94W was situated in central South China Sea east of KAJIKI. The majority of the official agencies followed the forecast that the two systems would interact and spin around a common centre in an anticlockwise fashion; this would allow KAJIKI to move east back into the South China Sea, followed by a turn to the northeast due to a developing equatorial ridge. Meanwhile, the JTWC adopted the forecast that KAJIKI would remain embedded within Indochina and dissipate gradually.

It was not at all clear whether the binary system interacted, as KAJIKI's appearance deteriorated upon landfall and a lot of the convections previously observed in central South China Sea dissipated gradually between September 3 and 4, due to the presence of tropical cyclone LINGLING in eastern Luzon Strait. Most official agencies brought KAJIKI back into the South China Sea in the night of September 3, but by that time KAJIKI's core was lacking convections, revealing an exposed low-level circulation centre. KAJIKI lingered around the seas south of the Gulf of Tonkin, and was downgraded by various agencies soon after.

Following a period of stagnation, the remnants of KAJIKI indeed picked up a northeasterly to east-northeasterly track across northern South China Sea several days later.

熱帶擾動 91W 於 8 月 31 日進入南海東部。經過一輪於 91W 中心附近的對流爆發，日本氣象廳於晚上 8 時發出烈風警報，而聯合颱風警報中心則於 9 月 1 日上午 2 時發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。數值模式整體上預料 91W 將沿副熱帶高壓脊南部西移，並於靠近海南島時轉向西南，其後因預料菲律賓附近會有另一氣旋發展而停滯。

91W 於 1 日日間加速西移，並於 2 日早上到達海南南部。中國中央氣象台路徑顯示 91W 橫過海南南部，轉向西南並於下午 2 時過後進入南海西部。當天風暴中心附近有對流爆發，晚間旋捲性有所改善。

91W 於 3 日凌晨繼續向西南移動，並於上午約 2 時登陸越南順化。聯合颱風警報中心此時將 91W 升格為熱帶低氣壓 16W，而日本氣象廳更升格為熱帶風暴劍魚。由於預報模式對劍魚的路徑預測出現分歧，日美兩國的預測路徑明顯不同。當時熱帶擾動 94W 位處劍魚東面的南海中部，大部分官方機構預測兩系統將發生相互影響，圍繞一共同中心作逆時針旋轉，這將令劍魚東移入南海，隨後因赤道高壓脊發展而轉向東北。至於聯合颱風警報中心則預料劍魚會於中南半島徘徊，並逐漸消散。

因另一氣旋玲玲當時位處呂宋海峽東部，大部分原先於南海中部的對流在 3 至 4 日逐漸消散。由於劍魚登陸後形態轉差，很難判斷劍魚最終有否與 94W 發生相互影響。大部分官方機構於 3 日晚間表示劍魚重回南海，但當時其中心已缺乏對流，其低層環流中心外露。劍魚隨後於北部灣以南海域徘徊，不久後逐漸被各機構降格。

徘徊過後，劍魚的殘餘雲帶最終如先前預測所料，數日後向東北至東北偏東移動並橫過南海北部。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 1/9 ● 2/9 ● 3/9
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結：1/9 ● 2/9 ● 3/9

In Hong Kong, the weather was unstable towards the end of August following the passage of tropical cyclone PODUL earlier. The HKO upgraded KAJIKI into a tropical depression and issued the #1 Standby Signal at 8:40 am September 1, when it was 490 km southeast of Hong Kong. The HKO also mentioned that it would consider the need for the #3 Signal that afternoon.

The rainbands associated with KAJIKI reached Hong Kong in the early afternoon. Many locations saw a significant rise in the wind speed; gales were briefly recorded at Cheung Chau, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island. The #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 4:20 pm. Due to KAJIKI's quick motion, it had already moved to 340 km south-southeast of Hong Kong at that time. KAJIKI's rainbands continued to affect Hong Kong in the rest of the day, leading to occasional squally showers in the territory.

KAJIKI was the closest to Hong Kong near 9 pm September 1, when it was around 320 or 330 km to the south. Winds in Hong Kong generally moderated overnight, but were somewhat stronger in offshore waters and on high ground. The HKO issued the #1 Standby Signal at 10:40 am September 2, replacing the #3 Signal. A more intense rainband swept across Hong Kong near noon; the Amber Rainstorm Warning was in force between 12:25 pm and 2 pm.

In the night of September 2, the HKO indicated that strong winds were still occasionally observed in offshore waters and on high ground due to the combined effect of KAJIKI and a continental anticyclone. As a result of this and the possibility that KAJIKI would approach Hong Kong again later, the #1 Signal remained in force even though the storm was about 800 km from Hong Kong at 10 pm and continued to recede. KAJIKI moved to around 1000 km from Hong Kong at 7 am September 3 before drifting back to 990 km at the #1 Signal's eventual cancellation at 9:20 am. The HKO kept its forecast of KAJIKI moving northeast to east-northeast across the South China Sea until the storm was downgraded into an area of low pressure in the morning of September 4.

受先前熱帶氣旋楊柳橫過南海影響，本港 8 月底天氣不穩定。香港天文台於 9 月 1 日上午 8 時 40 分升格劍魚為熱帶低氣壓，並發出一號戒備信號，當時劍魚位於香港東南約 490 公里。同時，天文台表示下午將考慮是否需要改發三號信號。

與劍魚相關的雨帶於下午早段到達香港，不少地區風速隨即上揚；長洲、大老山及橫瀾島曾錄得烈風。天文台遂於下午 4 時 20 分改發三號強風信號。由於劍魚移速較快，三號信號發出之時風暴已移至香港東南偏南約 340 公里。劍魚的對流於當天餘下時間繼續影響香港，本地間中有狂風驟雨。

劍魚於 1 日下午約 9 時最接近本港，於南面約 320 至 330 公里處掠過。本港風勢普遍於凌晨緩和，但離岸及高地風勢較大。天文台於 2 日上午 10 時 40 分改發一號戒備信號，取代三號信號。一道較強烈雨帶於中午時份橫過香港，黃色暴雨警告於下午 12 時 25 分至 2 時生效。

天文台於 2 日晚間表示，受劍魚及大陸反氣旋的共同影響，本港離岸及高地仍間中吹強風。加上劍魚有可能於較後時間再度靠近香港，雖然風暴於下午 10 時位處本港約 800 公里外並進一步遠離，但一號信號仍然生效。劍魚於 3 日上午 7 時移至距港約 1000 公里，稍後距離略為縮窄至 990 公里，天文台於上午 9 時 20 分取消一號戒備信號。信號取消後，天文台繼續維持劍魚向東北至東北偏東方向橫過南海的預測，直至於 4 日早上降格劍魚為低壓區為止。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - Numerical model forecast tracks at 8 pm August 31 (Image from tropicaltidbits)
圖 1 - 8 月 31 日部分數值模式預報圖 (圖像由 tropicaltidbits 網站擷取)

Figure 2 - Wind field analysis at 9:30 am September 1
圖 2 - 9 月 1 日上午 9 時 30 分之風場掃描圖

Figure 3 - Forecast track by the HKO at 11 am September 1
圖 3 - 9 月 1 日上午 11 時香港天文台之預測路徑圖

Figure 4 - A rainband moving close to Hong Kong near noon September 1
圖 4 - 9 月 1 日正午時份一道雨帶靠近本港

Figure 5 - Wind distribution in Hong Kong at 2:20 pm September 1; gales were recorded at Cheung Chau
圖 5 - 9 月 1 日下午 2 時 20 分本港風勢分布圖，留意長洲正吹烈風

Figure 6 - Satellite image of KAJIKI near its closest approach to Hong Kong
圖 6 - 劍魚最接近香港時之衛星雲圖

Figure 7 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Central Pier and Tap Mun (top to bottom) on September 1
圖 7 - 長洲、中環碼頭及塔門 (上至下) 於 9 月 1 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 8 - Satellite image of KAJIKI at 2:10 am September 3
圖 8 - 9 月 3 日上午 2 時 10 分劍魚之衛星雲圖

Figure 9 - Weather chart at 2 am September 3 showing the low pressure systems east of KAJIKI
圖 9 - 9 月 3 日上午 2 時之天氣圖顯示劍魚以東的低壓系統

Figure 10 - Initial track forecast by the JTWC
圖 10 - 聯合颱風警報中心之初始預報路徑圖

Figure 11 - Forecast tracks by various official agencies at 8 am September 3
圖 11 - 9 月 3 日上午 8 時各官方氣象台之預測路徑圖

Figure 12 - Track probability forecast by the HKO on September 3
圖 12 - 9 月 3 日天文台之路徑概率預報

Figure 13 - Steering flow chart at 8 am September 3
圖 13 - 9 月 3 日上午 8 時之駛流場圖

Figure 14 - Wind field analysis at 9:37 pm September 3
圖 14 - 9 月 3 日下午 9 時 37 分之風場掃描圖

Figure 15 - Satellite image showing remnants of KAJIKI moving across the South China Sea on September 7
圖 15 - 9 月 7 日劍魚殘餘橫過南海之衛星圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by KAJIKI from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Thu Jun 11 2026 11:56:05 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 24 2023