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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 202105W (KOGUMA 小熊) [Refresh 更新]

202105W (KOGUMA 小熊) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on June 14, 2021; final version issued on July 23, 2021)
(初稿於 2021 年 6 月 14 日發出，最後版本於 2021 年 7 月 23 日上載)

Brief profile of KOGUMA | 小熊小檔案:

^Refers to the period between the HK Observatory's first and last bulletins for the tropical cyclone (with at least tropical depression intensity). For storms formed/dissipated/transformed into an extratropical cyclone outside the area bounded by 7-36°N and 100-140°E, information from the JTWC will be used instead.
^即香港天文台為該熱帶氣旋 (熱帶低氣壓級或更高) 作出發佈的時期。至於在北緯 7 至 36 度、東經 100 至 140 度外形成／消散／轉化為溫帶氣旋的風暴，本網將參考聯合颱風警報中心的資料。

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2021/06/11 (FRI) 16:15 HKT	SSW 500 km	WNW at 15 km/h	45 km/h (25 knots, TD)
	2021/06/12 (SAT) 14:10 HKT	SW 640 km	W/WNW at 18 km/h	55 km/h (30 knots, TD)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track with signal information 附有熱帶氣旋警告信號資料的路徑圖:

(Track figure courtesy of Lorenzo. Data from HKO. 鳴謝 Lorenzo 提供路徑圖，資料取自天文台)

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

A broad area of low pressure developed in the South China Sea on June 10 and 11. The low pressure, designated as tropical disturbance 92W by the JTWC, had acquired the characteristics of a monsoon depression. It had a loose centre and winds were stronger in the periphery than near its centre.

As 92W showed signs of intensification, the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert in the afternoon of June 11. The JMA issued a gale warning at the same time, while the NMC of China upgraded the system into a tropical depression. Situated along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, 92W was forecast to move west-northwest towards Hainan Island and northern Vietnam over the next few days.

92W made landfall in Lingshui county of southern Hainan before 10 am June 12. It continued its way through the island, consolidating at the same time. The JTWC upgraded 92W into tropical depression 05W in the morning, while the JMA upgraded it into a tropical storm in the afternoon, naming it KOGUMA. KOGUMA entered the Gulf of Tonkin later that afternoon, and moved west-northwest during the night. KOGUMA reached its peak intensity while it travelled across the Gulf.

KOGUMA made its second and final landfall in northern Vietnam in the morning of June 13. The storm weakened gradually on land and into an area of low pressure that night.

一道廣闊低壓區於 6 月 10 至 11 日在南海發展，聯合颱風警報中心給予擾動編號 92W。92W 的中心鬆散，外圍風速較近中心強，皆為季風低壓的典型特徵。

11 日，92W 有跡象增強，聯合颱風警報中心於下午發出熱帶氣旋形成警報。另一方面，日本氣象廳於下午發出烈風警告，而中國中央氣象台則將 92W 升格為熱帶低氣壓。92W 當時位於副熱帶高壓脊的西南沿，預料向西北偏西移動，於未來數天趨向海南島及越南北部。

92W 於 12 日上午 10 時前登陸海南陵水縣，隨後橫過該島並逐漸整合。聯合颱風警報中心於上午將 92W 升格為熱帶低氣壓 05W，而日本氣象廳於當日下午將其升格為熱帶風暴，並命名為小熊。小熊於下午稍後進入北部灣，並於晚間向西北偏西移動。小熊於橫過北部灣時達到其巔峰強度。

小熊於 13 日上午於越南北部作最後一次登陸，其後於陸上減弱，於晚間減弱為低壓區。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 11/6 ● 12/6
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結：11/6 ● 12/6

In Hong Kong, there were a few showers prior to KOGUMA's formation in the South China Sea. On June 11, the HK Observatory issued the #1 Standby Signal at 4:15 pm, shortly after upgrading the low pressure area into a tropical depression. The depression was expected to be closest to Hong Kong that evening and in the night, passing at a distance of around 500 km.

The cloud and rainbands associated with KOGUMA's outer circulation affected Hong Kong that night. The downpour mainly affected Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and eastern New Territories; the Amber Rainstorm Warning was in force between 8:25 and 10:45 pm. Winds during the night were somewhat stronger than that morning, with moderate to fresh easterly winds blowing in most places. Strong force winds were occasionally observed in offshore waters and on high ground, such as Cheung Chau, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island. Meanwhile, gale force winds were recorded at Ngong Ping, also an elevated location.

KOGUMA was closest to Hong Kong near 8 pm June 11, when it was around 480 km south-southwest of the territory. As KOGUMA moved west, winds in Hong Kong veered to the southeast in the morning of June 12. The gusts associated with another rainband led to a momentary surge in wind speed over parts of Hong Kong between 9 am and 10 am. Sustained winds at Cheung Chau, one of the eight reference stations, reached 62 km/h, just 1 km/h short of the gale force threshold. Gusts at Ngong Ping and Cheung Chau reached 117 km/h and 90 km/h, respectively.

Local winds moderated in the afternoon of June 12, and the #1 Standby Signal was cancelled at 2:10 pm, when KOGUMA was situated around 640 km to the southwest. The weather remained unstable that night with occasional heavy showers.

香港方面，小熊於南海形成前天氣已不穩定，間中有驟雨。香港天文台於 6 月 11 日下午升格該低壓區為熱帶低氣壓，不久後於下午 4 時 15 分發出一號戒備信號。預料該熱帶低氣壓將於當日傍晚及晚間最接近香港，在西南 500 公里左右處掠過。

與小熊外圍環流相關的雲雨帶於 11 日晚影響香港，大雨主要影響港島、九龍及新界東部，黃色暴雨警告於下午 8 時 25 分至 10 時 45 分間生效。本港整體風勢比上午稍強，大多數地方吹和緩至清勁偏東風，而離岸及高地如長洲、大老山及橫瀾島等地間中吹強風，昂坪更吹烈風。

小熊於 11 日下午約 8 時最接近香港，當時位於本港西南偏南約 480 公里。隨著小熊西移，本地風向於 12 日早上順轉至東南。一道雨帶於上午 9 至 10 時靠近，其相關陣風令部分地方風勢短暫急升。參考風速站之一的長洲持續風力達每小時 62 公里，比烈風下限只低 1 公里；昂坪、長洲的陣風曾分別達每小時 117 及 90 公里。

本地風勢於 12 日下午緩和，一號戒備信號於下午 2 時 10 分取消，小熊當時位於香港西南約 640 公里。信號取消後，當晚本港天氣仍然不穩定，間中有大驟雨。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - GFS ensemble forecast for 92W at 8 am June 10 [Image from Tropical Tidbits]
圖 1 - 6 月 10 日上午 8 時之 GFS 模式集成預報圖 [圖像取自 Tropical Tidbits]

Figure 2 - Wind field analysis map at 8:20 am June 11. Stronger winds were observed in the periphery of the low pressure area.
圖 2 - 6 月 11 日上午 8 時 20 分之風場掃描圖，可見低壓區周邊的風速較高

Figure 3 - Satellite image of the low pressure area in the South China Sea
圖 3 - 位於南海的低壓區之衛星雲圖

Figure 4 - Initial track and intensity forecast map issued by the HKO on the tropical depression
圖 4 - 香港天文台為熱帶低氣壓首次發佈的路徑及強度預測圖

Figure 5 - Wind field analysis map at 10:55 am June 12
圖 5 - 6 月 12 日上午 10 時 55 分之風場掃描圖

Figure 6 - Steering flow chart at 8 am June 12
圖 6 - 6 月 12 日上午 8 時之駛流場分佈圖

Figure 7 - Satellite image of KOGUMA as it crossed the Gulf of Tonkin
圖 7 - 小熊橫過北部灣時之衛星雲圖

Figure 8 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau on June 11-12
圖 8 - 長洲於 6 月 11-12 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 9 - Maximum gusts recorded over Hong Kong near 9:30 am June 12
圖 9 - 6 月 12 日上午約 9 時 30 分前後本港各區錄得的最高陣風

Figure 10 - Rainfall distribution map for June 11 (left) and 12 (right)
圖 10 - 6 月 11 (左) 及 12 日 (右) 之雨量分佈圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table lists the maximum 10-minute average (sustained) wind speed recorded while tropical cyclone signals were in force. In some occasions, it is possible that the strongest winds were not recorded when the highest signal was in force.

下表列出各站於熱帶氣旋警告信號生效時所錄得的最高 10 分鐘平均 (持續) 風速，留意此風速不一定於最高信號生效期間錄得。

*A sustained wind speed of 37 km/h was recorded at Chek Lap Kok near 4 pm June 11 before the issuance of the #1 Signal, and near 3 pm June 12 after the cancellation of the #1 Signal.
*一號信號發出前，赤鱲角曾於 6 月 11 日下午約 4 時錄得持續風速每小時 37 公里。一號信號取消後，該地於 6 月 12 日下午約 3 時亦錄得相同風速。

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by KOGUMA from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Sat Mar 22 2025 14:46:28 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Tue Sep 26 2023