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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 202297W (MULAN 木蘭) [Refresh 更新]

202297W (MULAN 木蘭) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on August 18, 2022, final version issued on September 28, 2022)
(初稿於 2022 年 8 月 18 日發出，最後版本於 2022 年 9 月 28 日上載)

Brief profile of MULAN | 木蘭小檔案:

^Refers to the period between the HK Observatory's first and last bulletins for the tropical cyclone (with at least tropical depression intensity). For storms formed/dissipated/transformed into an extratropical cyclone outside the area bounded by 7-36°N and 100-140°E, information from the JTWC will be used instead.
^即香港天文台為該熱帶氣旋 (熱帶低氣壓級或更高) 作出發佈的時期。至於在北緯 7 至 36 度、東經 100 至 140 度外形成／消散／轉化為溫帶氣旋的風暴，本網將參考聯合颱風警報中心的資料。

^&Based on HKWW track information.
^&基於本站路徑資料。

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2022/08/09 (TUE) 03:40 HKT	SSW 660 km	N at 18 km/h	45 km/h (25 knots, TD)
	2022/08/09 (TUE) 11:25 HKT	SSW 580 km	N at 18 km/h	55 km/h (30 knots, TD)
	2022/08/10 (WED) 18:20 HKT	WSW 540 km	WNW at 18 km/h	75 km/h (40 knots, TS)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

Tropical disturbance 97W formed east of the Philippines in early August. It moved into central South China Sea on August 6 and stagnated there. The NMC published a forecast track map for the system at 5 am August 8, before upgrading it into a tropical depression at 2 pm that day. The JMA issued a gale warning at 2 pm, while the JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert at 8 pm. The JTWC never upgraded 97W into a tropical cyclone.

Influenced by an equatorial ridge, 97W was expected to move northeast initially. As 97W gained latitude, it would then be affected by the subtropical ridge to its northeast, which would allow the storm to turn northwest and approach southern China. 97W was a monsoon depression with its strongest winds at its periphery. The storm lacked convections near its centre, and winds were lighter as well.

The JMA upgraded 97W into a tropical storm at 2 pm August 9, naming it MULAN. The storm turned north at that time, and further to the northwest that night. It was rather difficult to locate MULAN's centre, leading to an irregular track that was depicted in the NMC's forecast chart.

MULAN approached northeastern Hainan in the morning of August 10 but did not make landfall there. It turned west and crossed the Qiongzhou Strait. According to the NMC, MULAN made landfall near Xuwen, which is at the southern tip of Guangdong, near 10:50 am. The landfall was brief, and MULAN entered the Gulf of Tonkin soon after.

After several days of consolidation, MULAN was finally able to wrap its convections near its centre. However, due to land interaction, MULAN weakened gradually while crossing the Gulf. The storm made its final landfall in northern Vietnam in the small hours of August 11, and weakened into an area of low pressure during the day.

熱帶擾動 97W 於 8 月初在菲律賓以東形成，並於 6 日移入南海中部，其後處於停滯狀態。中國中央氣象台於 8 日上午 5 時為其發出預測路徑圖，至下午 2 時升格該擾動為熱帶低氣壓。日本氣象廳於下午 2 時發出烈風警告，而聯合颱風警報中心於下午 8 時發出熱帶氣旋形成警報，但最終該中心並未升格 97W 為熱帶氣旋。

受赤道高壓脊影響，預料初時 97W 會向東北移動。隨著 97W 緯度增加，它將轉受東北方的一道副熱帶高壓脊影響，令風暴轉向西北移動並靠近華南。97W 是一季風低壓，其最強風區位於外圍，近中心缺乏對流，風力亦較弱。

日本氣象廳於 8 月 9 日下午 2 時將 97W 升格為熱帶風暴，命名為木蘭。風暴當時向偏北移動，晚間進一步轉向西北。木蘭的確實中心位置較難判斷，中央氣象台的路徑圖顯示風暴移動不規則。

木蘭於 8 月 10 日早上靠近海南東北部，但並未於該島登陸。風暴西轉並橫過瓊州海峽，中央氣象台表示它於上午約 10 時 50 分登陸位於廣東南端的徐聞。登陸後不久，木蘭進入北部灣。

經過多天的整合，木蘭終於將其對流捲進中心。但是，受陸地影響，木蘭橫過北部灣時逐漸減弱。風暴於 8 月 11 日凌晨時份登陸越南北部，並於當日減弱為低壓區。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 9/8 ● 10/8
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結：9/8 ● 10/8

Various numerical models had consistently predicted MULAN's development before its formation. In a blog post on August 6, the HK Observatory hinted at the possibility of squally showers and increasing wind speeds the next Tuesday and Wednesday (August 9 to 10). Near midday on August 8, the Observatory said that the low pressure area in central South China Sea would develop into a tropical cyclone, and that it would consider issuing the #1 Standby Signal in the morning of August 9.

The Observatory upgraded MULAN into a tropical depression near 3 am August 9. The #1 Signal was issued at 3:40 am, when the storm was around 660 km south-southwest of Hong Kong. As it was rather windy in MULAN's periphery, local winds strengthened gradually over the next couple of hours. Gale force easterly winds were observed at Waglan Island near 7 am when an outer rainband arrived. Strong force winds were observed in offshore waters and on high ground.

Due to the strengthening winds, the Observatory indicated at 8 am August 9 that the #3 Strong Wind Signal would be considered between 10 am and 1 pm that day. The signal was eventually issued at 11:25 am when MULAN was about 580 km from the territory. The Observatory played it safe and suggested that whether higher signals were needed would depend on the changes in MULAN's intensity and the variation of local wind strength.

Persistent rainbands affected Hong Kong in the afternoon of August 9. Cheung Chau registered gale force winds just before 3 pm; strong force winds were recorded within the Victoria Harbour at the Kowloon Star Ferry pier. Strong winds became more widespread after midnight August 10, but gales were only observed at several offshore and elevated stations. At 5 am, the Observatory indicated that the chance of issuing higher signals was not high unless MULAN intensified significantly or local winds strengthened further.

Local winds turned southeasterly in the morning of August 10. The astronomical high tide occurred between 6 and 8 am, around the time when MULAN was closest to Hong Kong. Fortunately, the storm surge was rather mild and did not cause significant flooding in low-lying areas. Winds in Hong Kong moderated somewhat in the afternoon, but the rain became more frequent. As MULAN moved away, the #3 Strong Wind Signal was cancelled at 6:20 pm. It is worth noting that the #8 Southeast Signal was issued in Macau between 7 am and 1 pm August 10; sustained winds at two of the three bridges linking Macau Peninsula and Taipa reached gale force during MULAN's approach.

Strong winds associated with MULAN's rainbands continued to affect parts of the territory in the night of August 10 and the small hours of August 11, leading to the issuance of the Strong Monsoon Signal at 2:10 am. Although rainstorm warning signals were never issued during MULAN's approach, most of Hong Kong received more than 50 mm of rain on each of August 9 and 10. The daily rainfall even reached 150 mm in Lantau Island on August 10. The weather improved towards the weekend as the subtropical ridge strengthened.

木蘭形成前已有多個數值模式持續預料其發展。8 月 6 日，香港天文台於其網誌「天氣隨筆」中提及下周二及三 (8 月 9 及 10 日) 有機會有狂風驟雨，風勢增強。8 日約正午時份，天文台表示位於南海中部的低壓區將發展為熱帶氣旋，會於 9 日早上考慮發出一號戒備信號。

天文台於 8 月 9 日上午近 3 時將木蘭升格為熱帶低氣壓。一號信號於上午 3 時 40 分發出，當時風暴位於香港西南偏南約 660 公里。由於木蘭的周邊區域風勢較大，香港風力普遍於其後數小時逐漸增強。一道外圍雨帶於上午 7 時左右靠近，橫瀾島錄得達烈風程度的偏東風，而部分離岸及高地站點吹強風。

由於風勢增強，天文台於 8 月 9 日上午 8 時表示將於當天上午 10 時至下午 1 時考慮改發三號強風信號。該信號最終於上午 11 時 25 分發出，當時木蘭距港約 580 公里。天文台採取較謹慎的做法，表示需否發出更高的信號取決於木蘭的強度及本地風力變化。

香港於 8 月 9 日下午持續受木蘭的雨帶影響。長洲於下午 3 時前錄得烈風風力，而位於維港內的九龍天星碼頭吹強風。至 10 日凌晨，強風影響地區變得較為廣泛，但只有數個離岸及高地站吹烈風。上午 5 時，天文台表示除非木蘭顯著增強或本港風力有明顯上升趨勢，否則改發較高信號的機會不大。

本港風向於 8 月 10 日早上轉為東南。當天適逢天文大潮，漲潮於上午 6 至 8 時出現，與木蘭最接近香港的時間相距不遠。幸而風暴潮較為輕微，低窪地區並未見明顯水浸。風勢於下午稍為緩和，但雨勢轉密。隨著木蘭移離，三號強風信號於下午 6 時 20 分取消。值得留意的是澳門於 10 日上午 7 時至下午 1 時曾發出八號東南風球；在木蘭靠近期間，三條連接澳門半島與氹仔的大橋中有兩條曾錄得達烈風程度的持續風速。

與木蘭雨帶相關的強風於 8 月 10 日晚間及 11 日凌晨繼續影響香港部分地區，天文台於上午 2 時 10 分發出強烈季候風信號。雖然木蘭襲港期間並未發出任何暴雨警告信號，但本港大部分區域於 9 及 10 日每天雨量均超過 50 毫米，而大嶼山於 10 日更錄得超過 150 毫米雨量。隨著副熱帶高壓脊增強，本港天氣於周末改善。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - GFS (left) and ECMWF (right) ensemble forecast track and intensity at 8 am August 7 (source: Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave)
圖 1 - 8 月 7 日上午 8 時之 GFS (左) 及 ECMWF (右) 集成預報路徑及強度 (來源：Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave)

Figure 2 - Satellite image of MULAN at its initial stage of formation in the South China Sea
圖 2 - 木蘭於南海形成初期之衛星雲圖

Figure 3 - HKO's initial forecast track
圖 3 - 香港天文台之初始預測路徑圖

Figure 4 - Steering flow chart at 8 am August 9
圖 4 - 8 月 9 日上午 8 時之駛流場分佈圖

Figure 5 - Forecast tracks from various official agencies on August 9
圖 5 - 8 月 9 日各官方氣象台之預測路徑

Figure 6 - Wind field analysis at 10:05 pm August 9, depicting strong winds in MULAN's periphery
圖 6 - 8 月 9 日下午 10 時 05 分之風場掃描，顯示木蘭的外圍正吹強風

Figure 7 - Radar image at 1 pm August 10
圖 7 - 8 月 10 日下午 1 時之雷達圖

Figure 8 - Local wind distribution maps at 6-hour intervals from 6 am August 9 to noon August 10
圖 8 - 8 月 9 日上午 6 時至 10 日正午每 6 小時之本港風勢分布圖

Figure 9 - Satellite image of MULAN near its peak intensity
圖 9 - 木蘭接近巔峰強度時之衛星雲圖

Figure 10 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Kowloon Star Ferry Pier, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island (top to bottom) for August 9 and 10
圖 10 - 長洲、九龍天星碼頭、大老山及橫瀾島 (上至下) 於 8 月 9 及 10 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 11 - Observed (blue) and predicted (red) tide at Quarry Bay (left) and Tai O (right) during MULAN's approach
圖 11 - 木蘭靠近時鰂魚涌 (左) 及大澳 (右) 之實測 (藍色) 及預測 (紅色) 潮汐

Figure 12 - Rainfall distribution map for August 9 (left) and 10 (right)
圖 12 - 8 月 9 (左) 及 10 日 (右) 之雨量分佈圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table lists the maximum 10-minute average (sustained) wind speed recorded while tropical cyclone signals were in force. In some occasions, it is possible that the strongest winds were not recorded when the highest signal was in force.

下表列出各站於熱帶氣旋警告信號生效時所錄得的最高 10 分鐘平均 (持續) 風速，留意此風速不一定於最高信號生效期間錄得。

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by MULAN from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Thu Jun 11 2026 12:11:30 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Mon Jul 24 2023