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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 202304W (TALIM 泰利) [Refresh 更新]

202304W (TALIM 泰利) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on July 23, 2023, final version issued on November 25, 2023)
(初稿於 2023 年 7 月 23 日發出，最後版本於 2023 年 11 月 25 日上載)

Brief profile of TALIM | 泰利小檔案:

^Refers to the period between the HK Observatory's first and last bulletins for the tropical cyclone (with at least tropical depression intensity). For storms formed/dissipated/transformed into an extratropical cyclone outside the area bounded by 7-36°N and 100-140°E, information from the JTWC will be used instead.
^即香港天文台為該熱帶氣旋 (熱帶低氣壓級或更高) 作出發佈的時期。至於在北緯 7 至 36 度、東經 100 至 140 度外形成／消散／轉化為溫帶氣旋的風暴，本網將參考聯合颱風警報中心的資料。

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2023/07/15 (SAT) 04:40 HKT	SE 700 km	Slowly → NW at 10 km/h	55 km/h (30 knots, TD)
	2023/07/16 (SUN) 05:40 HKT	SSE 450 km	WNW at 15 km/h	85 km/h (45 knots, TS)
	2023/07/17 (MON) 00:40 HKT	S 280 km	WNW at 18 km/h	120 km/h (65 knots, T)
	2023/07/17 (MON) 06:40 HKT	SSW 260 km	WNW at 18 km/h	130 km/h (70 knots, T)
	2023/07/17 (MON) 16:20 HKT	SW 290 km	WNW at 18 km/h	140 km/h (75 knots, T)
	2023/07/18 (TUE) 02:40 HKT	WSW 490 km	WNW at 18 km/h	120 km/h (65 knots, T)
	2023/07/18 (TUE) 08:40 HKT**	W 540 km	WNW at 18 km/h	90 km/h (50 knots, STS)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

**The Strong Monsoon Signal was issued 1 minute after the cancellation of the #1 Standby Signal.
**天文台於一號戒備信號取消後 1 分鐘發出強烈季候風信號。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track(s) from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間 (協調世界時加 8 小時)

After an extended period of inactivity in the western Pacific Ocean, tropical disturbance 95W developed to the east of the Philippines in mid-July. Numerical models generally predicted that this disturbance would move into the South China Sea, and take a westerly to northwesterly track towards southern China.

95W's convections gradually developed over the next few days and the disturbance crossed northern Luzon between July 13 and 14. The JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert in the morning of July 14, and the JMA issued a gale warning at the same time. Both the NMC and HKO upgraded 95W into a tropical depression as the storm was about to enter the South China Sea. Both agencies predicted that 95W would take a turn to the northwest, before moving west to west-northwest towards the Leizhou Peninsula.

The JTWC upgraded 95W into tropical depression 04W in the night of July 14. Fuelled by an active southwesterly airstream in the central and southern parts of the South China Sea, 04W developed steadily and various agencies were in the belief that the storm would intensify into a typhoon prior to landfall.

After moving west for some time, 04W started to move west-northwest on July 15. The JMA upgraded 04W into a tropical storm that afternoon and named it TALIM. Over the next day or so, TALIM appeared asymmetric with most of its convections concentrated in its southern side, apparently as a result of the moderate vertical wind shear in the region. However, as the wind shear eased on July 16, TALIM was able to wrap its convections to the northern side as well. Both the JMA and HKO upgraded TALIM into a severe tropical storm that morning. TALIM intensified further during the day and started to develop a banding eye that night. The HKO upgraded TALIM into a typhoon at 8 pm, the first official agency to do so. It later mentioned in its social media account that a Government Flying Service aircraft flew into the storm that afternoon and recorded sustained winds reaching 60 knots (111 km/h) near sea level, which was just below the threshold for hurricane force winds.

While still moving west-northwest, there were some northward jogs in TALIM's track in the small hours of July 17. Its core continued to consolidate, prompting agencies such as the JTWC, NMC and CWB to upgrade the storm into a typhoon. The JMA, meanwhile, kept TALIM as a severe tropical storm throughout. By daybreak, TALIM had already developed a symmetric banding eye. However, the storm was rather close to land at that time, and some degradation in its core structure could be seen several hours prior to landfall.

TALIM made landfall near Zhanjiang, Guangdong after 10 pm July 17. According to the NMC, the wind speed near its centre was estimated to be 38 m/s (137 km/h). The storm crossed Leizhou Peninsula overnight and weakened into a severe tropical storm early on July 18. It briefly entered the Gulf of Tonkin, before making a final landfall near Beihai, Guangxi near 6 am. TALIM continued to move west to west-northwest during the day, making its way into northern Vietnam that night before weakening into an area of low pressure on July 19.

西北太平洋經歷長時間的平靜期後，熱帶擾動 95W 於 7 月中旬在菲律賓以東形成。數值模式普遍預計該擾動將進入南海，並採取西至西北路徑，趨向華南一帶。

隨後數天，95W 的對流逐漸發展，擾動於 7 月 13 至 14 日橫過呂宋北部。聯合颱風警報中心於 14 日早上對其發出熱帶氣旋形成警報，而同時日本氣象廳發出烈風警告。中國中央氣象台及香港天文台均將 95W 升格為熱帶低氣壓，當時該系統正進入南海。兩機構均預計 95W 會先轉西北，隨後向西至西北偏西移動，趨向雷州半島。

聯合颱風警報中心於 7 月 14 日晚間將 95W 升格為熱帶低氣壓 04W。此時南海中南部正受活躍西南氣流支配，為 04W 提供源源不絕的能量，風暴得以穩步發展，各機構均相信它登陸前會增強為颱風。

經過一輪西移後，04W 於 7 月 15 日開始向西北偏西移動。日本氣象廳於下午將 04W 升格為熱帶風暴，並命名為泰利。在接下來的一天，泰利形態並不對稱；受該區中等垂直風切變影響，泰利的對流集中於其南方。隨著垂直風切變於 16 日減弱，泰利亦能將其對流捲至北方。日本氣象廳及香港天文台均於當日早上將泰利升格為強烈熱帶風暴。泰利於日間進一步增強，至晚間開始發展雲捲風眼，天文台於下午 8 時升格泰利為颱風，是首個作出此升格的官方機構。其後，天文台在其社交媒體帳戶表示，政府飛行服務隊當天下午派飛機進入泰利的環流，於近地面錄得持續風速達 60 節 (每小時 111 公里)；這風速僅低於颶風下限。

泰利於 7 月 17 日仍大致向西北偏西移動，但凌晨期間風暴曾多次北跳。隨著泰利的核心繼續整固，聯合颱風警報中心、中央氣象台及台灣中央氣象局等氣象機構紛紛將泰利升格為颱風。至破曉時份，泰利已發展出一對稱雲捲風眼。可是，當時風暴已較為接近陸地，其登陸前數小時可以見到核心結構開始轉差。

泰利於 7 月 17 日下午 10 時後登陸廣東湛江，中央氣象台發佈指其中心風速約為每秒 38 米 (每小時 137 公里)。風暴於凌晨橫過雷州半島，並於 18 日早段減弱為強烈熱帶風暴。它曾短暫進入北部灣，並於上午約 6 時再度登陸廣西北海一帶。日間泰利繼續向西至西北偏西移動，至當晚進入越南北部，繼而於 19 日減弱為低壓區。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 15/7 ● 16/7 ● 17/7 ● 18/7
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結：15/7 ● 16/7 ● 17/7 ● 18/7

While TALIM was developing near Luzon, its subsidence resulted in extremely hot weather in southern China. In HKO's weather forecast issued on July 14, local temperatures in urban areas were expected to reach as high as 36 degrees on July 15. That night, the HKO mentioned that the #1 Signal would be considered before 6 am the next day, and that the weather would deteriorate gradually from July 16.

The #1 Standby Signal was issued at 4:40 am July 15, when TALIM was about 700 km southeast of the territory. It was mainly sunny with some haze during the day. Although the maximum temperature fell short of 36 degrees at the HKO, it was much higher in the new territories. The temperature of 38.3 degrees at Wetland Park was the highest ever in the month of July, and many places recorded temperatures in the range between 36 and 38 degrees. Convective activities enhanced by the heat led to the development of thunderstorms in the afternoon that affected certain parts of Hong Kong including the Lantau Islands. The HKO mentioned that local winds would strengthen later and that it would consider issuing the #3 Signal before 6 am July 16.

In the night of July 15, an area with intense thunderstorms approached Hong Kong. There was a brief period of heavy showers, and more than 10 mm of rain was recorded in many parts of the new territories. On July 16, the #3 Strong Wind Signal was issued at 5:40 am, at which point TALIM had moved to about 450 km south-southeast of Hong Kong. The HKO also warned of the possibility of floods in low-lying areas due to the combined influence of the storm surge and the astronomical high tide in the morning of July 17.

Locally, winds came in from the northeast and were generally light when the #3 Signal was issued. However, as TALIM was expected to intensify and edge closer to Hong Kong, the HKO was quick to mention (near noon July 16) that it would assess the need of issuing the #8 Signal between midnight and morning of July 17.

Although TALIM's rainbands could be seen on radar images, few were able to reach the coast during the daytime. A rainband did approach the territory near 2 pm July 16 and winds started to strengthen. Towards that evening, strong force winds were observed mostly in offshore areas and on high ground. Cheung Chau, Green Island, Peng Chau, Sai Kung, Tai Mei Tuk, and Tap Mun were some of the stations that experienced strong winds. Winds at Ngong Ping, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island were the first to reach gale force, and even stations within the Victoria Harbour including Central Pier and North Point registered strong force winds that afternoon to evening.

As TALIM moved to the south of Hong Kong in the night of July 16, the local wind direction turned to the east-northeast. In its tropical cyclone warning issued at 8:45 pm, the HKO mentioned that it would consider issuing the #8 Signal between midnight and 2 am July 17. TALIM was situated around 300 km south of Hong Kong at that time. There were some showers that night but they were neither frequent nor intense.

Cargo handling services were suspended at 10 pm. The Pre-No. 8 Special Announcement was issued at 10:40 pm, indicating that the #8 Signal would be issued by 12:40 am July 17 the latest. Local ferry services were suspended gradually in the next few hours, while daytime bus routes continued to operate until their end of service for the day. The #8 Northeast Gale or Storm Signal was issued after the full warning time had elapsed; TALIM was around 280 km south of Hong Kong at that time. This marked the 13th consecutive year in which at least one storm necessitated the #8 Signal, surpassing the previous record of 12 between 1970 and 1981. At the time of issuance, the HKO indicated that the #8 Signal would remain in force at least until 7 am that morning; this was postponed to noon in its bulletin issued at 3:45 am. When the #8 Signal was initially issued, gale force winds were still confined to Ngong Ping, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island, with strong winds blowing at several other locations. There was generally a lack of significant rainbands overnight; winds picked up when one did arrive shortly after 3 am. Ngong Ping was the first to register storm force winds; Cheung Chau, Peng Chau, Tap Mun and Tai Mei Tuk saw gale force winds after 5 am. Strong winds, meanwhile, were more widespread over the territory.

The wind direction turned east near daybreak, and some locations saw an increase in wind speed as they became more exposed. The HKO issued the #8 Southeast Gale or Storm Signal at 6:40 am, replacing the northeast signal. Because TALIM made several northwards jogs overnight, its closest approach to Hong Kong was delayed to around 9 am, when it was estimated to be 250 km south-southwest of the territory. Local winds were generally the strongest in the daytime of July 17.

In its 8:45 am bulletin, the HKO further delayed the time of cancelling the #8 Signal to not earlier than 4 pm. A storm surge of around 0.6 metres was observed at Tai O in the morning, and the sea level there reached 3.1 metres above chart datum. Several other flooding-prone areas also saw an increase in the sea level, but no major flooding was observed.

Several rainbands swept across the territory in the late morning and early afternoon. At 87 km/h, sustained winds at Cheung Chau were just short of the storm force threshold near 2 pm. At around the same time, winds at Green Island reached gale force for the first time during TALIM's approach. Nevertheless, as TALIM was then receding from the territory, the HKO suggested in the early afternoon that the #3 Strong Wind Signal would be issued at 4:20 pm, replacing the #8 Signal.

TALIM was around 290 km southwest of Hong Kong when the #3 Signal was issued. Winds in southern Hong Kong had mostly moderated to the strong force level with occasional gales. However, another rainband approached near 5 pm and winds at Cheung Chau went up to 87 km/h again, while Sha Chau briefly registered gale force winds near 4:30 pm. The Amber Rainstorm Warning was in force between 5:50 pm and 7:30 pm. Later that night, winds moderated further and the HKO replaced the #3 Signal with the #1 Standby Signal at 2:40 am July 18. The #1 Signal was itself cancelled at 8:40 am; the HKO opted for the Strong Monsoon Signal, which suggested that strong winds may be observed coming from the southeast, a rather rare direction for monsoons. The Strong Monsoon Signal was cancelled at 2:40 pm that afternoon, and the weather improved gradually in the next few days.

During TALIM's approach, the government received 55 reports of fallen trees, including one which hit a Filipina at South Bay Beach in the afternoon of July 16. There were two flooding reports, while 9 people sought medical assistance at the Accident and Emergency Department of public hospitals for storm-related injuries.

泰利於呂宋發展期間，其下沉氣流為華南帶來極端酷熱的天氣。7 月 14 日，天文台的天氣預報顯示翌日市區溫度預計會達到 36 度。當晚，天文台表示將於 15 日上午 6 時前考慮發出一號信號，而天氣將於 16 日逐漸轉壞。

一號戒備信號於 7 月 15 日上午 4 時 40 分發出，泰利當時位於香港東南約 700 公里。當天日間大致天晴但有煙霞；雖然天文台最高溫度未達 36 度，但新界氣溫明顯較高。其中濕地公園錄得 38.3 度高溫，打破該站 7 月紀錄，而很多地方氣溫亦高達 36 至 38 度。極端高溫觸發對流活動，下午局部地區包括大嶼山有雷暴。天文台表示本地風勢稍後會有所增強，並將於 16 日上午 6 時前考慮改發三號信號。

7 月 15 日晚，一個雷雨區靠近香港，多處出現短暫的大驟雨，新界多處錄得超過 10 毫米雨量。至 16 日，三號強風信號於上午 5 時 40 分發出，泰利已移至香港東南偏南約 450 公里。天文台警告，低窪地區或因風暴潮及天文大潮的共同影響而於 17 日早上出現水浸。

三號信號發出之時，香港主要吹東北風，風勢大致微弱。但是，由於預料泰利會增強並接近本港，天文台早於 7 月 16 日近中午便提及將評估是否需要於 17 日午夜至早上改發八號信號。

雖然雷達圖上可見泰利的雨帶，但日間能靠岸的並不多。一條雨帶於 7 月 16 日下午約 2 時抵港，本地風勢開始增強。及至傍晚，強風主要影響離岸及高地；受強風影響的站點包括長洲、青洲、坪洲、西貢、大美督及塔門等。昂坪、大老山及橫瀾島風速率先達到烈風水平，而維港內的中環碼頭及北角亦於下午至傍晚錄得強風。

隨著泰利於 7 月 16 日晚間移至香港以南，本地風向轉為東北偏東。天文台於下午 8 時 45 分的熱帶氣旋警報中表示將考慮於 17 日午夜至上午 2 時改發八號信號；當時泰利位於香港以南約 300 公里，而當晚雖然間中有驟雨，但並不頻密，雨勢亦不算大。

各貨櫃碼頭的交收服務於下午 10 時暫停。預警八號熱帶氣旋警告信號之特別報告於下午 10 時 40 分發出，說明將最遲於 7 月 17 日上午 12 時 40 分改發八號信號。其後數小時本地渡輪服務陸續暫停，而日間巴士路線則照常服務至尾班車。八號東北烈風或暴風信號於預警期後隨即生效，泰利此時於香港以南約 280 公里。這是天文台連續第 13 年需要發出八號信號，打破 1970 至 1981 年期間的 12 年紀錄。信號發出之時，天文台表示八號信號將最少維持至上午 7 時，其後於上午 3 時 45 分的發佈中延遲至最少當天正午。八號信號生效初期，烈風仍只局限於昂坪、大老山及橫瀾島，部分其他氣象站吹強風。凌晨期間強雨帶仍然較少，而當一條雨帶於上午 3 時後不久抵達，本港風勢隨即上揚。昂坪風力首達暴風水平，而長洲、坪洲、塔門及大美督則於上午 5 時後吹烈風，強風則影響本港較廣泛地區。

接近日出時份，香港開始轉吹東風，部分地區因較為當風，其風勢有所增強。天文台於上午 6 時 40 分發出八號東南烈風或暴風信號，取代東北信號。由於泰利凌晨曾數度北跳，它最接近香港的時間推遲到上午 9 時左右，於西南偏南方約 250 公里處掠過。整體來說，本地風勢於 7 月 17 日日間最為強勁。

天文台於上午 8 時 45 分的熱帶氣旋警報中再度推遲取消八號信號的時間至不早於下午 4 時。當天早上，大澳錄得約 0.6 米的風暴潮，水位達海圖基準面以上 3.1 米。其他容易水浸的地方水位亦有所上升，但並沒有出現嚴重水浸。

數條雨帶於早上後段至下午初段橫過本港。長洲於接近下午 2 時錄得持續風速達每小時 87 公里，僅略低於暴風下限；青洲風力亦於差不多時間首次上試烈風水平。雖然如此，由於泰利正逐漸遠離，天文台於下午初段宣布將於下午 4 時 20 分發出三號強風信號，取代八號信號。

三號信號發出之時，泰利位於香港西南約 290 公里。本港風力已大致回落至強風水平，間中吹烈風。但是，另一道雨帶於下午 5 時左右靠近，長洲風速再次上升至每小時 87 公里，而沙洲於下午 4 時 30 分左右短暫吹烈風。黃色暴雨警告於下午 5 時 50 分至 7 時 30 分之間生效。當晚較後時間風勢進一步緩和，天文台於 7 月 18 日上午 2 時 40 分改發一號戒備信號，以取代三號信號。一號信號其後亦於上午 8 時 40 分取消，天文台隨即改發強烈季候風信號，表示本港吹東南強風 (雖然香港的季候風較少來自東南方)。強烈季候風信號於當天下午 2 時 40 分取消，而天氣於隨後數天逐漸好轉。

泰利靠近香港期間，政府接獲 55 宗塌樹報告，包括一宗於 7 月 16 日下午在南灣海灘發生，擊中一名菲律賓籍女子。另外有兩宗水浸報告，而風暴期間有 9 人受傷並前往公立醫院急症室接受治療。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - GFS ensemble forecast at 2 am July 14 (top left); ECMWF ensemble forecast at 8 am July 13 (top right); deterministic model forecasts at 8 am July 14 (bottom) (source: Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave, Typhoon2000)
圖 1 - 7 月 14 日上午 2 時 GFS 模式集成預報 (左上)；7 月 13 日上午 8 時 ECMWF 模式集成預報 (右上)；7 月 14 日上午 8 時各數值模式確定性預報 (下) (來源：Tropical Tidbits, Easterlywave, Typhoon2000)

Figure 2 - Satellite image of TALIM at its formation
圖 2 - 泰利形成初時之衛星雲圖

Figure 3 - Initial forecast tracks by HKO (top left) and JTWC (top right); multi-agency forecast tracks at 2 pm July 15 (bottom)
圖 3 - 香港天文台 (左上) 及聯合颱風警報中心 (右上) 之初始預報圖；7 月 15 日下午 2 時各氣象機構之預測路徑圖 (下)

Figure 4 - Maximum temperatures recorded at various places on July 15
圖 4 - 7 月 15 日各區錄得之最高氣溫

Figure 5 - Radar image on July 15 showing an area of intense precipitation affecting Hong Kong
圖 5 - 7 月 15 日之雷達圖顯示一個強雷雨區正影響香港

Figure 6 - Steering flow chart (top) and distribution of vertical wind shear (bottom) at 8 am July 16
圖 6 - 7 月 16 日上午 8 時之駛流場分佈圖 (上) 及垂直風切變分佈圖 (下)

Figure 7 - Wind field analysis at 9:57 pm July 16 (left) and 10:26 am July 17 (right)
圖 7 - 7 月 16 日下午 9 時 57 分 (左) 及 17 日上午 10 時 26 分 (右) 之風場掃描

Figure 8 - HKO forecast track and estimated wind radii at 8 am July 17 showed that Hong Kong was within the area with gale force winds
圖 8 - 7 月 17 日上午 8 時香港天文台之預測路徑及估算風圈圖，顯示香港位於烈風圈內

Figure 9 - Satellite image of TALIM near its peak intensity
圖 9 - 泰利接近巔峰強度時之衛星雲圖

Figure 10 - Radar images at 2 am (left), 8 am (middle) and 2 pm (right) of July 17
圖 10 - 7 月 17 日上午 2 時 (左)、8 時 (中) 及下午 2 時 (右) 之雷達圖

Figure 11 - Local wind distribution maps at 6-hour intervals from 9:30 pm July 16 to 3:30 am July 18
圖 11 - 7 月 16 日下午 9 時半至 18 日上午 3 時半每 6 小時之本港風勢分布圖

Figure 12 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau, Green Island, North Point and Waglan Island (top to bottom) for July 16 and 17
圖 12 - 長洲、青洲、北角及橫瀾島 (上至下) 於 7 月 16 至 17 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 13 - Observed (blue) and predicted (red) tide at Tai O (left) and Quarry Bay (right) during TALIM's approach
圖 13 - 泰利靠近時大澳 (左) 及鰂魚涌 (右) 之實測 (藍色) 及預測 (紅色) 潮汐

Figure 14 - Rainfall distribution maps for July 17 (left) and 18 (right)
圖 14 - 7 月 17 日 (左) 及 18 日 (右) 之雨量分佈圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table lists the maximum 10-minute average (sustained) wind speed recorded while tropical cyclone signals were in force. In some occasions, it is possible that the strongest winds were not recorded when the highest signal was in force.

下表列出各站於熱帶氣旋警告信號生效時所錄得的最高 10 分鐘平均 (持續) 風速，留意此風速不一定於最高信號生效期間錄得。

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by TALIM from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Sat Mar 22 2025 13:24:26 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Sat Nov 25 2023