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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Selected TC Review / 重要熱帶氣旋回顧 > 202516W (PODUL 楊柳) [Refresh 更新]

202516W (PODUL 楊柳) - Profile 檔案

(First draft issued on August 16, 2025, final version issued on April 18, 2026)
(初稿於 2025 年 8 月 16 日發出，最後版本於 2026 年 4 月 18 日上載)

Brief profile of PODUL | 楊柳小檔案:

^Refers to the period between the HK Observatory's first and last bulletins for the tropical cyclone (with at least tropical depression intensity). For storms formed/dissipated/transformed into an extratropical cyclone outside the area bounded by 7-36°N and 100-140°E, information from the JTWC will be used instead.
^即香港天文台為該熱帶氣旋（熱帶低氣壓級或更高）作出發佈的時期。至於在北緯 7 至 36 度、東經 100 至 140 度外形成／消散／轉化為溫帶氣旋的風暴，本網將參考聯合颱風警報中心的資料。

TC signals in Hong Kong* 香港曾經生效的熱帶氣旋警告*:

Signal 信號	Date and time 日期和時間	Distance from HK 與香港的距離	Predicted movement 預測移動趨勢	Max. 10-min winds 中心最高十分鐘平均風速
	2025/08/13 (WED) 08:40 HKT	E 790 km	WNW at 28 km/h	155 km/h (85 knots, ST)
	2025/08/14 (THU) 12:20 HKT	N 300 km	WNW at 28 km/h	65 km/h (35 knots, TS)

*Based on the information from real-time tropical cyclone warning bulletins.
*根據實時熱帶氣旋警報資料。

Percentile Ranks 百分等級:

IR imagery animation 紅外線雲圖動畫:

TC track from HKWW 本站的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

TC track(s) from HKO 天文台的熱帶氣旋路徑圖:

Past HKWW Bulletins 本站發佈

Please click here for bulletins on this tropical cyclone. 請按這裡。

Storm Development Overview 風暴發展概覽

Unless otherwise stated, all times below are in Hong Kong Standard Time (UTC+8)
除非特別註明，下文時間均為香港標準時間（協調世界時加 8 小時）

Tropical disturbance 98W formed in the seas northeast of Guam in early August, moving west-northwest. The JTWC issued a tropical cyclone formation alert at 2 am August 7, and upgraded it into tropical depression 16W six hours later. At its formation, there were significant differences between traditional numerical model and AI-based model forecasts. While both types of models agreed that 16W would turn west and move along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge, the AI-based models favoured a more southerly track with a southward dip that would bring 16W to a lower latitude, before it would turn west-northwest again and enter the South China Sea. Meanwhile, traditional models generally predicted a more northerly track that would bring 16W towards northern Taiwan, East China Sea or even the Ryukyu Islands.

Soon after formation, 16W was subject to rather strong vertical wind shear and its low-level circulation centre was partially or even completely exposed between August 7 and August 8. The JMA upgraded 16W into a tropical storm at 2 am August 8 and named it PODUL. At that time, it was generally believed that the shear would persistently affect PODUL, and that the system would only intensify at a modest rate before weakening as it approached the seas east of Taiwan.

PODUL turned west on August 9 and maintained this heading in the next two days. Traditional and AI-based numerical models gradually came to the agreement that PODUL would most likely make landfall in Taiwan. PODUL remained as a severe tropical storm and its deep convections were sheared to the south.

PODUL dipped south on August 11 and turned west-northwest the next day. It also showed signs of development as the shear finally relaxed. The storm formed a banding eye that afternoon and official agencies upgraded it into a typhoon. PODUL reached its peak intensity just before making landfall in Taitung County in southern Taiwan at 1 pm August 13. Due to Taiwan's terrain, PODUL moved almost due west in the early morning of August 13, but turned west-northwest again hours before landfall. The NMC and HKO further upgraded PODUL into a severe typhoon.

PODUL spent around 3 hours in southern Taiwan and entered the Taiwan Strait later that afternoon as a typhoon. Its core structure was disrupted by the landmass, and the storm's deep convections were concentrated in its southern semicircle. It continued to move west-northwest and made a second landfall in Zhangpu County, Fujian at around 12:30 am August 14. The NMC downgraded PODUL into a severe tropical storm upon landfall; the storm crossed northern Guangdong on August 14 as it gradually weakened. It entered Guangxi later that day and dissipated gradually on August 15.

熱帶擾動 98W 於 8 月初在關島東北方海域形成，並向西北偏西移動。聯合颱風警報中心於 7 日上午 2 時對其發出熱帶氣旋形成警報，並於 6 小時後將其升格為熱帶低氣壓 16W。系統形成時，傳統數值模式及人工智能模式對於 16W 的預測有明顯分歧。雖然兩者均預料 16W 將西轉並沿副熱帶高壓脊南部移動，但人工智能模式路徑普遍較南，預測 16W 將稍為南移至較低緯度，其後再向西北偏西移動並進入南海；傳統模式路徑普遍較北，預測 16W 將移向台灣北部、東海甚至琉球群島。

形成後不久，16W 即受較強垂直風切變影響，8 月 7 至 8 日間其低層環流中心部分至完全外露。日本氣象廳於 8 日上午 2 時將 16W 升格為熱帶風暴，並命名為楊柳。當時預料風切將持續影響楊柳，令其只能以較慢速度增強，並於靠近台灣以東海域時減弱。

楊柳於 8 月 9 日轉向偏西，並於其後兩天維持此移動方向。傳統及人工智能模式的分歧逐漸收窄，兩者均預料楊柳會於台灣登陸。楊柳維持強烈熱帶風暴強度，其深層對流被切離至南方。

楊柳於 8 月 11 日稍為南移，翌日轉向西北偏西移動。隨著風切減弱，楊柳有跡象發展。12 日下午，楊柳形成雲捲風眼，官方氣象機構將它升格為颱風。楊柳於 13 日下午 1 時左右登陸台灣南部的台東縣，登陸前達到其巔峰強度。受台灣地形影響，楊柳於 13 日清晨幾乎向平西移動，但登陸前轉回西北偏西。中國中央氣象台及香港天文台進一步將楊柳升格為強颱風。

楊柳用了大約三小時橫過台灣南部，當日下午稍後以颱風強度進入台灣海峽。風暴的核心結構受陸地擾亂，其深層對流集中於南半圓。楊柳繼續向西北偏西移動，於 8 月 14 日上午約 12 時 30 分再度登陸福建漳浦縣。中國中央氣象台於楊柳登陸時將其降格為強烈熱帶風暴；風暴於 14 日橫過廣東北部，並逐漸減弱。它當日稍後進入廣西，並於 15 日逐漸消散。

Weather in Hong Kong During Approach 風暴影響時香港天氣狀況

Link to relevant HKO weather report bulletins: 13/8 ● 14/8
香港天文台相關天氣報告連結： 13/8 ● 14/8

The HK Observatory issued a blog post on August 11 and mentioned the possibility of PODUL moving along a track that would make it closer to Hong Kong than the Observatory's forecast. At noon August 12, the HK Observatory issued a Special Weather Tip and said it would issue the #1 Standby Signal when PODUL came to within 800 km of Hong Kong in the morning of August 13.

At 6 am August 13, the Observatory fixed the time of issuance of the #1 Signal at 8:40 am. PODUL was situated about 790 km east of Hong Kong when the signal was issued, and there were still four hours to go before it made landfall in southern Taiwan. Affected by PODUL's subsidence, it was very hot in Hong Kong that afternoon. The Observatory expressed that showers and squally thunderstorms triggered by the heat would affect the vicinity of the Pearl River Estuary later that day. However, except for a few isolated showers, most of the territory did not receive any rain on August 13.

The Observatory said that it would assess the need to issue the #3 Strong Wind Signal in the morning of August 14. As PODUL weakened inland, however, it turned out that widespread strong winds were deemed unlikely, and that the chance of raising the signal was low. Nevertheless, PODUL was moving closer to Hong Kong, and the intense rainbands to the south of the storm started to affect the territory near 5 am August 14. Heavy rain began to fall in southern Hong Kong Island, and the Amber Rainstorm Warning was issued at 5:22 am. Still confined to the southern parts of Hong Kong, the rain became more widespread after 6 am and spread to areas such as Lantau and southwestern New Territories afterwards. The Rainstorm Warning was raised to Red at 6:35 am and further to Black at 7:50 am - the fifth Black Rainstorm Warning issued in half a month's time.

Due to the heavy rain, all morning and whole-day schools were suspended and most workers did not need to report to work at the usual time. At 8:22 am, the Observatory indicated that there was exceptionally severe rainstorm (with an hourly rainfall of 140 mm) in Central and Western District, and severe rainstorm (with an hourly rainfall of 100 mm) in Kwai Tsing and Tuen Mun Districts. A total of 6 flooding reports were received by the Drainage Services Department. Squalls associated with the heavy rain resulted in a temporary surge in wind speeds in offshore and elevated locations; winds at Cheung Chau and Ngong Ping briefly reached gale force in the morning, and strong winds were recorded at Chek Lap Kok, Lamma Island, Lau Fau Shan, Sha Chau, Tate's Cairn and Waglan Island.

As the most intense rainbands migrated to the waters south of Hong Kong, the Black Rainstorm Warning was replaced by the Red one at 11:10 am and further by the Amber one at 12:10 pm. Most public services resumed around two hours after the Black Rainstorm Warning was cancelled. Originally scheduled for 10 am that day, the opening of the Hong Kong Food Expo held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre was postponed to 1:10 pm. By 2 pm, it was reported that 145 flights were delayed and five were cancelled at the Hong Kong International Airport.

The #1 Standby Signal was cancelled at 12:20 pm, when PODUL was around 300 km north of Hong Kong. More than 200 mm of rain was received in most of Lantau and some outlying islands, parts of Hong Kong Island, Tuen Mun and Tsing Yi; a limited area including the airport even received 300 mm. The Amber Rainstorm Warning was cancelled at 3:55 pm, but the local weather remained unstable with occasional heavy showers in the rest of August 14. The Landslip Warning was in force between 2 pm August 14 and 12:25 am August 15. The HK Observatory recorded a total rainfall of 117.4 mm on August 14.

As PODUL moved further inland, rain gradually diminished in the small hours of August 15 and it was mainly cloudy that day with some showers.

8 月 11 日，天文台於「天氣隨筆」網誌中表示楊柳有機會以較預測偏南的路徑移動，令其更為接近香港。12 日中午，天文台發出特別天氣提示，表示會於 13 日早上楊柳進入本港 800 公里範圍時發出一號戒備信號。

8 月 13 日上午 6 時，天文台將發出一號信號的時間定為上午 8 時 40 分，信號發出時楊柳位於香港以東約 790 公里，尚有數小時才登陸台灣南部。受楊柳的下沉氣流影響，香港當天下午酷熱，天文台指出高溫觸發的驟雨及狂風雷暴會於稍後影響珠江口一帶。但是，除局部地區有幾陣驟雨外，香港大部份地區 13 日並未錄得任何雨量。

天文台表示將評估是否需於 8 月 14 日早上發出三號強風信號。但是，隨著楊柳於內陸減弱，香港不太可能廣泛地區吹強風，因此改發更高熱帶氣旋警告信號的機會不大。雖然如此，但楊柳仍然正在接近，其南部的強烈雨帶於 14 日上午 5 時左右開始影響本港。港島南部開始下大雨，天文台於上午 5 時 22 分發出黃色暴雨警告。大雨於上午 6 時後變得更為廣泛，開始影響大嶼山及新界西南部，但仍較集中於香港南部地區。暴雨警告於上午 6 時 35 分轉為紅色，並於上午 7 時 50 分轉為黑色，而這亦是近半個月來第五次發出黑色暴雨警告。

受大雨影響，上午校及全日制學校停課，大部份僱員毋須於正常上班時間回到工作地點。上午 8 時 22 分，天文台表示中西區有特大暴雨（每小時雨量達 140 毫米），而葵青及屯門區有大暴雨（每小時雨量達 100 毫米）。渠務處共接獲 6 宗水浸報告。伴隨大雨的狂風令離岸及高地風速急升，長洲及昂坪短暫吹烈風，而赤鱲角、南丫島、流浮山、沙洲、大老山及橫瀾島則錄得強風。

隨著最強的雨帶移至香港以南水域，黑色暴雨警告於上午 11 時 10 分被紅色暴雨警告取代，至下午 12 時 10 分改發黃色暴雨警告。大部份公共服務於黑色暴雨警告取消後約兩小時恢復。在香港會議展覽中心舉辦的美食博覽，其開幕時間由原訂的上午 10 時延遲至下午 1 時 10 分。截至下午 2 時，香港國際機場共有 145 班航班延誤，5 班航班取消。

一號戒備信號於下午 12 時 20 分取消，當時楊柳位於香港以北約 300 公里。大嶼山、部分離島、港島、屯門及青衣全日雨量達 200 毫米，小部分地區（包括機場）更達 300 毫米。黃色暴雨警告於下午 3 時 55 分取消，但 8 月 14 日餘下時間本港天氣仍然不穩定，間中有大驟雨。山泥傾瀉警告於 14 日下午 2 時發出，15 日上午 12 時 25 分取消。天文台於 14 日共錄得 117.4 毫米雨量。

楊柳其後繼續移入內陸，8 月 15 日凌晨本港雨勢逐漸減弱，當日大致多雲並有幾陣驟雨。

Image Gallery 圖片庫

Figure 1 - Numerical model ensemble forecasts (left - GFS; right - ECMWF) at 8 am August 8
圖 1 - 8 月 8 日上午 8 時之數值模式集成預報（左：GFS；右：ECMWF）

Figure 2 - Vertical wind shear distribution map (top) and steering flow chart (bottom) at 8 am August 10
圖 2 - 8 月 10 日上午 8 時之垂直風切變（上）及駛流場（下）分佈圖

Figure 3 - Forecast tracks from various official agencies at 8 am August 10
圖 3 - 8 月 10 日上午 8 時之官方機構預測路徑圖

Figure 4 - Satellite image at noon August 11 showing PODUL's convections being sheared to the south
圖 4 - 8 月 11 日正午之衛星雲圖顯示楊柳的對流被切離至南方

Figure 5 - Wind field analysis map at 9:28 pm August 12
圖 5 - 8 月 12 日下午 9 時 28 分之風場分析圖

Figure 6 - Satellite image of PODUL at peak intensity
圖 6 - 楊柳達到巔峰強度時之衛星雲圖

Figure 7 - Radar image of PODUL as it made landfall in southeastern Taiwan
圖 7 - 楊柳於台灣東南部登陸時之雷達圖

Figure 8 - Radar images at 8 am August 14
圖 8 - 8 月 14 日上午 8 時之雷達圖

Figure 9 - Satellite image at 8:05 am August 14 showing a patch of intense convections in PODUL's southern semicircle
圖 9 - 8 月 14 日上午 8 時 05 分之衛星雲圖顯示楊柳南半圓有猛烈對流

Figure 10 - Wind speed time series at Cheung Chau between August 13 and August 14
圖 10 - 長洲於 8 月 13 至 14 日之風速時間序列圖

Figure 11 - Daily rainfall distribution map for August 14
圖 11 - 8 月 14 日之雨量分佈圖

Winds Recorded at Reference Stations 參考站所錄得的風速

The following table lists the maximum 10-minute average (sustained) wind speed recorded while tropical cyclone signals were in force. In some occasions, it is possible that the strongest winds were not recorded when the highest signal was in force.

下表列出各站於熱帶氣旋警告信號生效時所錄得的最高 10 分鐘平均（持續）風速，留意此風速不一定於最高信號生效期間錄得。

Charts and Figures 各項數據

Table 1: Track data from HKWW:
表一 : 香港天氣觀測站之路徑資料

Table 2: Maximum gust and hourly average wind speed recorded in Hong Kong from HKO:
表二 : 香港天文台公佈的各站最高每小時平均風力和陣風數據 (英文)

Table 3: Rainfall (in millimetres) contributed by PODUL from HKO (figures in brackets are based on incomplete hourly data):
表三 : 香港天文台公佈的各站雨量資料 (英文) (方括號內之數據由不完整之每小時資料擷取)

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Thu Jun 11 2026 12:33:46 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Sat Apr 18 2026