Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities - Usage 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋信號機率

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TC Watch / 熱帶氣旋 > Model-Based TC Signal Probabilities - Usage 基於統計模型之熱帶氣旋信號機率 - 使用篇 [Refresh 更新]

Using the Probability Table 使用機率列表

A sample set of probability tables is as follows:

下面顯示一機率列表樣本：

6-hourly in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities 每 6 小時之生效、發出及取消機率 (SAMPLE 樣本)
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差	+6 Sat 08h	+12 Sat 14h	+18 Sat 20h	+24 Sun 02h	+30 Sun 08h	+36 Sun 14h	+42 Sun 20h	+48 Mon 02h	+54 Mon 08h	+60 Mon 14h	+66 Mon 20h	+72 Tue 02h
#1 Standby Signal or above 一號戒備信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率	100	100	100	100	100	99	91	66	41	19	6	1
First cancelled within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次取消機率						1	8	24	25	22	13	5
#3 Strong Wind Signal or above 三號強風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率	2	18	61	89	98	98	84	50	26	12	4	1
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率	2	16	43	28	9	2
#8 Gale or Storm Signal or above 八號烈風或暴風信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率			6	48	81	76	35	8	1
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率			6	42	34	10	1
#9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal or above 九號烈風或暴風增強信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率				5	29	23	4
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率				5	28	15	2
#10 Hurricane Signal 十號颶風信號
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率				2	11	11	1
First issued within 6 hr ending at tau 所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出機率				2	12	11	1

2-hourly probabilities for Signals #9 and #10 九號及十號信號之每 2 小時機率 (SAMPLE 樣本)
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Tau 時間差	+2 Sat 04h	+4 Sat 06h	+6 Sat 08h	+8 Sat 10h	+10 Sat 12h	+12 Sat 14h	+14 Sat 16h	+16 Sat 18h	+18 Sat 20h	+20 Sat 22h	+22 Sun 00h	+24 Sun 02h	+26 Sun 04h	+28 Sun 06h	+30 Sun 08h	+32 Sun 10h	+34 Sun 12h	+36 Sun 14h
#9 Increasing Gale or Storm Signal or above 九號烈風或暴風增強信號或更高
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率											2	5	12	21	29	32	30	23
First issued in interval 時間間格內首次發出機率											2	3	7	11	10	8	5	2
#10 Hurricane Signal 十號颶風信號
In force at tau 所示時間信號生效機率											1	2	4	8	11	14	14	11
First issued in interval 時間間格內首次發出機率											1	1	2	5	5	5	4	2

Issuance and cancellation probabilities over first 72 hours of forecast 預報期首 72 小時內之發出及取消機率 (SAMPLE 樣本)
Probabilities 機率 (%) \ Signal 信號	#1+	#3+	#8+	#9+	#10
Issued within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內發出有關信號機率	--	100	93	50	27
Cancelled within next 72 hours 未來 72 小時內取消有關信號機率	99	--	--	--	--

The features of these tables are listed below:

The first table includes in force, issuance and cancellation probabilities for the next 72 hours binned at 6-hour intervals:
- The first row indicates the number of hours elapsed since the time of observation for the current report; the day of week and clock hour (in HKT, 24-hour format) are provided for easier reference.
- The next rows are signal-specific: The full table has probabilities for five signal categories: "Signal 1 or above", "Signal 3 or above", "Signal 8 or above", "Signal 9 or above" and "Signal 10". Probabilities for a given category are only displayed if they are not all zero.
- There are two rows of numbers for each signal category; the first row gives the probabilities that the signal category is in force at the time indicated by the column header, and is meant to be interpreted for a particular point in time only (NOT a period of time). What the second row displays depends on whether the signal category is currently in force; if it is not in force, it displays the probabilities that the relevant signal category will be issued for the first time in the 6-hour interval ending at the time indicated by the column header. For example, the number corresponding to the column "+36" indicates the probability that the signal category will not be issued in the next 30 hours, counting from the time of observation, but will be issued between 30 and 36 hours. If the signal category concerned is in force, the second row displays the probabilities of cancellation instead. A similar interpretation applies.
- Different colour schemes are employed for the "in force", "issuance" and "cancellation" rows to avoid confusion.
The second table is almost exactly the same as the first table, but has probabilities at 2-hour intervals for "Signal 9 or above" and "Signal 10" categories. This table is only provided if there is at least one cell within the next 36 hours whose "in force" probability is above 10%.
The third table includes only the issuance and cancellation probabilities for the first 72 hours of the forecast, or fewer if the forecast track is shorter. It gives the probabilities that a particular signal (or above) is issued or cancelled any time after the time of observation and before the end of forecast or 72 hours, whichever is shorter. The number of times the signal is issued or cancelled does not matter here. When the signal (or above) is not currently issued, the "issued" row is relevant; otherwise the "cancelled" row is relevant instead. Mathematically, this number is the sum of the "issued" or "cancelled" row for the relevant signal in the first table.
Note that all numbers are rounded to the nearest integer, and so anything less than 0.5% is rounded to 0%, while anything above 99.5% is rounded to 100%.

此表所述資料如下：

表一為預測期首 72 小時內，每 6 小時之熱帶氣旋生效、發出及取消機率：
- 第一列顯示由本次發佈之觀測時間起計所列小時，其下方附有相關星期及 24 小時制的香港時間以作參考。
- 第一列以下是針對每個信號組別的機率。全表共有五個信號組別：「一號或更高」、「三號或更高」、「八號或更高」、「九號或更高」及「十號」信號。只有當某個信號組別相關概率並非全部是零的情況下我們才會列出該列。
- 每個信號組別有兩列數字：第一列顯示欄頂所示時間一刻 (而並非某段時間) 該信號組別生效的機率。第二列顯示內容取決於該信號組別現在有否發出；如並未發出，該列將顯示欄頂所示時間前 6 小時內首次發出該信號組別的機率，例如「+36」欄所示機率為該信號組別於觀測時間起計首 30 小時並未發出，但於介乎 30 至 36 小時內發出的機率。如信號組別現在已經發出，第二列將顯示該信號組別取消的機率，詮釋方法與發出機率相似。
- 為避免混淆，生效、發出及取消機率以不同顏色色階顯示。
表二與表一的分別是此表只顯示「九號或更高」及「十號」信號組別之每 2 小時機率。如未來 36 小時內並沒有生效機率達 10% 的時間點，此表將不予顯示。
表三載有預測期首 72 小時內 (如預測少於 72 小時，則整個預測期內) 發出及取消信號的機率。發出及取消時間可以是觀測時間之後，但觀測時間加 72 小時之前 (或預測期完結前) 任何一刻。信號發出及取消次數不在考慮之列。如該信號組別並未發出，應參考「發出」列概率，否則請參考「取消」列概率。此概率為相關信號表一「發出」或「取消」列的總和。
請留意所有數字皆四捨五入至最接近的整數，所以低於 0.5% 的機率會顯示為零，高於 99.5% 的則會顯示為 100%。

Using the Probability Plots 使用機率圖像

There are three types of probability plots; a sample of each plot is given below, together with annotations:

本產品共有三類圖像，樣本 (附註解) 如下：

Click here to return to the product page, or here for the methodology.

請按此回到本產品頁，或按此了解分析方法。

Last Accessed 最近訪問日期: Wed Jul 09 2025 11:05:45 HKT
Last Modified 最近修訂日期: Fri Jun 03 2022