MAYSAK is now being affected by the northeast monsoon. As the storm weakens further it will respond more to low level steering forces (i.e. the monsoon) which will force the storm to drift to the S or SW.
Intensity Analysis 強度分析
Current T-number: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24 HRS
After benefiting from improved outflow, MAYSAK suffered from high wind shear and drier air masses brought by the northeast monsoon. MAYSAK will continue to weaken until dissipation near t+48.
現時的 T 號碼: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/24 HRS
甚高的垂直風切變和東北季候風的入侵令美莎克逐步減弱。預料美莎克將繼續在不利環境下減弱，並於 48 小時內消散。
Effects on Hong Kong 對香港的影響
No threat to Hong Kong is expected within the next 72 hours.
美莎克於未來的 72 小時將不會對香港構成任何影響。
Next Update 下次更新
23 HKT, 2008/11/10 (or earlier 或更早)
Probabilities of TC Signals from HKO 香港天文台(已)發出熱帶氣旋警告信號的機率
MAYSAK will continue to move north along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge in the short term. However, as another ridge is expected to develop to the west of MAYSAK, it is forecast to slow down gradually in the next 24 hours. The strong surge of northeast monsoon will interact with the system in two days' time and as MAYSAK weakens the monsoon will have stronger influence on MAYSAK's track later in the forecast period.
Current T-number: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS
The good outflow associated to the arriving trough is causing MAYSAK to intensify, and this trend is likely to continue in the next 12 to 24 hours. Shear will become increasingly unfavorable (in excess of 30 knots) as MAYSAK moves north, and the arrival of the northeast monsoon will intrude cooler and drier air into the system. Its structure is expected to be severely damaged in 48 to 72 hours' time and it is expected to dissipate over water between t+96 and t+120.
After passing the Philippines, disturbance 93W intensified into a tropical depression (24W) this morning and further into a tropical storm in the afternoon. The name MAYSAK was assigned to this tropical system. At 20 HKT, MAYSAK was centred about 950 km (510 NM) SSE of Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge northeast of the system is gradually eroded by a passing mid-latitude trough. This would lead to weaker steering force which will make MAYSAK decelerate in a day's time while travelling NW. A surge of northeast monsoon will reach the South China coastal areas soon and will further progress southward. It is expected to interact with MAYSAK and guide it to the SW after two days.
Current T-number: T2.5/2.5/INT OBS
High ocean heat content and good outflow channel should allow further intensification in the next 24 hours. Shear will become increasingly unfavorable as MAYSAK moves north, and the arrival of the northeast monsoon will intrude cooler and drier air into the system. Its structure is expected to be severely damaged in 72 to 96 hours' time and it is expected to dissipate over water between t+96 and t+120.