LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK is moving NNW along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. It is expected to cross Japan in the next few hours and turn west as it merges with the giant low pressure system currently in the Sea of Japan.
LIONROCK's structure is deteriorating rapidly, with strong subsidence and vertical wind shear to its west. The storm will continue to weaken, the rate of which is expected to increase after it makes landfall in Russia. It should turn extratropical before t+24.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
The subtropical ridge to the northeast of LIONROCK is building gradually, and the storm is expected to turn north soon. It should make landfall somewhere in the Tohoku region tomorrow, and turn northwest into the sea of Japan. A second landfall in Primorsky Krai of Russia is expected the day after.
LIONROCK's eye is filling, but its convections remain tight. The storm will weaken gradually as it faces cooler waters and higher vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition is expected by t+48. LIONROCK's northern wind field is expected to expand and the storm may affect a wide region in northern Japan.
LIONROCK has intensified into a category 4 typhoon. At 2 pm, LIONROCK was centred about 470 km (250 NM) NW of Iwo Jima.
獅子山已增強為四級颱風。在下午 2 時，獅子山集結在硫磺島西北約 470 公里 (250 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK will move northeast in the next 12 hours along the northwestern periphery of the equatorial ridge. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge is expected to build east of Japan, forcing LIONROCK to turn around into the trough that is expected to be in the Sea of Japan at that time. LIONROCK will turn abruptly to the north and then northwest, crossing Japan next Tuesday. The spread among numerical models have been reduced over the past 24 hours, but given the sharp change in steering patterns, there is still substantial uncertainty as to the timing and location of landfall.
LIONROCK has maintained a clear, circular eye within a solid central dense overcast. The storm is now entering cooler waters and some weakening is expected in the next 12 hours. The rate of weakening should increase beyond t+24 as vertical wind shear becomes higher. LIONROCK is expected to start extratropical transition after t+48 and become fully extratropical by t+72. LIONROCK's wind radii, especially in its northern semicircle, may expand before landfall and could lead to a much wider area being affected by strong winds and storm surge.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK will move northeast in the next 36 hours along the northwestern periphery of the equatorial ridge. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge is expected to build east of Japan, forcing LIONROCK to turn around into the trough that is expected to be in the Sea of Japan at that time. LIONROCK will turn abruptly to the north and then northwest, crossing Japan next Tuesday. It should be noted that there is substantial spread among numerical models in terms of the time and location of LIONROCK's recurvature into the Sea of Japan, and thus there is high uncertainty in the track forecast beyond t+48.
LIONROCK's eye has deepened again in the past 12 hours. The storm is expected to intensify slightly in the next 24 hours in a generally favourable environment, but will weaken afterwards due to lower sea temperatures and (later) higher vertical wind shear. Extratropical transition is expected by t+96. LIONROCK's wind radii may expand considerably before landfall and could lead to a much wider area being affected by strong winds.
LIONROCK has started moving east slowly. At 2 pm, LIONROCK was centred about 500 km (270 NM) SE of Okinawa.
獅子山開始向東緩慢移動。在下午 2 時，獅子山集結在沖繩島東南約 500 公里 (270 海里)。
TC
Naming 氣旋命名
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
Ridging south to southeast of LIONROCK is strengthening and is expected to steer LIONROCK to the ENE turning to NE in the next 48 hours. After t+48, the subtropical ridge will build to the east of Japan, forcing LIONROCK to turn around into the trough that is expected to be in the Sea of Japan at that time. LIONROCK will turn abruptly to the north and then northwest, crossing Japan next Tuesday.
LIONROCK's intensity has not changed much, although its core is apparently not as tight as before. As the storm starts to move, it is expected to intensify in the next 36 to 48 hours in warm seas with low vertical wind shear and decent divergence aloft. It should weaken later as seas become cooler and vertical wind shear increases, but its wind radii may expand considerably and could lead to a much wider area being affected by strong winds.
LIONROCK intensified into a category 3 typhoon last night, and has been decelerating over the past 24 hours. At 2 pm, LIONROCK was centred about 440 km (240 NM) SE of Okinawa.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK is now situated in another pressure col with competing steering forces from the continental ridge to the west and the equatorial ridge to the south. The equatorial ridge will strengthen and become LIONROCK's primary steering mechanism, leading to a gradual acceleration to the northeast. LIONROCK is expected to turn sharply to the north near t+96 as the subtropical ridge extends to the west at higher latitudes at that time.
LIONROCK's central dense overcast is well-defined, but its eye is rather shallow on satellite images. The storm is still expected to intensify in the next 48 hours in warm seas with low vertical wind shear and decent divergence aloft, but will weaken later as sea temperatures drop.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK is expected to move southwest turning to west in the next 24 hours along the eastern periphery of the continental ridge. An equatorial ridge will then build south of LIONROCK, eventually influencing LIONROCK's movement and causing it to turn northeast at an increasing speed.
LIONROCK has developed a central dense overcast, within which an eye is embedded. The storm is expected to intensify in the next 72 hours in warm seas with low vertical wind shear and decent divergence aloft, potentially becoming a powerful typhoon as it reverses direction and approaches Japan again early next week.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK is expected to move southwest turning to west in the next 48 hours as the continental ridge assumes influence. An equatorial ridge will then build south of LIONROCK and cancel out the storm's westward track component, leading to another period of stagnation near t+72. The equatorial ridge is expected to become the primary steering mechanism after that, causing the storm to accelerate towards the ENE.
LIONROCK is expected to intensify throughout the forecast period as warm seas, low vertical wind shear and improving divergence are all factors suitable for tropical cyclone development. The rate of intensification may be slower initially, as LIONROCK's stagnation will likely churn up cooler water below the surface.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK is interacting with MINDULLE; this is causing the slow movement to the ESE. The storm is in a pressure col and movement will be slow in the next couple of days. The continental ridge to LIONROCK's west is expected to be slightly more dominant and should lead the storm towards the SW or WSW after t+36 or t+48. An equatorial ridge will likely build to the south of LIONROCK after t+72; this will cancel out LIONROCK's westward track component and the storm will likely come to a halt again near t+96 or t+120.
LIONROCK has intensified slightly over the past 24 hours. The storm will move into warmer waters with minimal vertical wind shear; it will intensify gradually over the next 120 hours, and may become a powerful typhoon by the end of the forecast period.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK is now situated in a pressure col and it is expected to move extremely slowly in the next 48 hours. Erratic movement, primarily to the south, is expected soon as it interacts with MINDULLE to the east. The western continental ridge is forecast to be slightly more dominant and will lead the storm towards the WSW slowly after t+48. However numerical models are in disagreement and some are suggesting a possible development of the equatorial ridge south of LIONROCK, and could be more dominant than the continental ridge to the west; the projected westward track may not materialize if this happens.
LIONROCK's eastern convections have diminished due to the presence of MINDULLE. After MINDULLE's passage, there should be more room for LIONROCK to intensify especially as it moves south into warmer waters.
LIONROCK is the 102nd name in the tropical cyclone name list. It was contributed by Hong Kong, and is the name of a peak in the territory. This name was used in 2010 and necessitated the #1 Standby Signal twice in Hong Kong.
LIONROCK is moving WSW along the southeastern periphery of a ridge over Korea. It is expected to come to a halt near t+24 as it will be situated within a pressure col with ridging at both sides, and may dip south as MINDULLE passes to its east. The storm will continue to move slowly after MINDULLE's passage, with a resumption of movement towards the SW or WSW more likely as it is influenced by the continental ridge. There is rather high uncertainty to the track forecast due to the complicated steering scenario expected in the later part of the forecast period.
LIONROCK's convections have deepened slightly over the past 24 hours, although the system remains small. Significant development is unlikely in the short term as MINDULLE passes by. As LIONROCK moves into warmer seas, it should be able to intensify after t+48.
Ridging over Korea is developing and 12W is expected to move W turning to WSW in the short run. It is expected to be stagnant after t+48 as it will be situated within a pressure col with ridging at both sides, and there is a chance its track is affected by MINDULLE which will be passing to its east. Some southwestward movement may resume near t+96 but this is highly dependent on the strength of the continental ridge over China at that time.
12W's convections are rather sparse although still symmetric. There will hardly be any development in the short run as the disturbance 98W to its southeast is approaching; after its passage, MINDULLE will be arriving and this will also hinder 12W's development. Intensification is only possible near the end of the forecast period, after the two systems have moved away.
12W is moving northwest quickly along the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. As ridging over Korea develops, 12W's track should become more equatorward. 12W is expected to be in a competing steering environment after t+48 or t+72, leading to very slow movement at that point. It is possible that the system interacts with 10W (or potentially 98W) and may result in an erratic behaviour in its track.
12W has a well-defined circulation centre and convective bands are clearly visible. Initial development could be hindered by the low sea temperatures; conditions are expected to improve when 12W tracks to the seas south of Japan, at which point intensification is more likely.
Active Tropical Cyclone(s) 正活躍之熱帶氣旋
