TC Watch > ENSO Watch [Refresh] [中文]
 Current Sea Temperatures and Anomalies |
ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña) are commonly defined or measured in terms of sea temperature anomalies in the Pacific tropical region. The following graphs are taken from the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Weather Service.
Recent Pacific tropical sea surface temperatures
Recent Pacific tropical sea surface temperature anomalies
Relative sea surface temperatures anomalies in different Niño regions
Note: Positive deviations (warmer than normal) are indicative of the El Niño phase, while negative deviations (cooler than normal) are indicative of the La Niña phase.
| Prediction of Niño 3.4 Index |
The Niño 3.4 index is widely considered as the most useful indicator for forecasting the onset of ENSO events. The area of observation spans the region 5°S to 5°N in latitude, and 120°W to 170°W in longitude (map here from Wikipedia). The following classification using the latest three-month average temperature anomaly is generally adopted:
- ENSO-neutral: Between -0.5°C and +0.5°C
- Weak El Niño: Between +0.5°C and less than +1.0°C
- Moderate El Niño: Between +1.0°C and less than +1.5°C
- Strong El Niño: Between +1.5°C and less than +2.0°C
- Very strong/Super El Niño: +2.0°C or more
The same numerical thresholds are used for La Niña classifications with the deviations changed from positive to negative.
The graphs below are the ensemble mean predictions of each model (left) and the predictions from all members (right) obtained from the NMME Website.
| Real-time SOI Data |
The SOI index is an older indicator of the ENSO phase which remains useful nowadays. It is calculated based on the pressure difference between Tahiti in central Pacific and Darin in Australia. El Niño episodes are signified by SOI values (30-day or 90-day average) lower than -7, while La Niña episodes are signified by values higher than +7. Numerical data in the following table are taken from here and values are calculated using the 1887-1989 base period. This information is usually updated every weekday at 7:00pm (AEST), public holidays excluded.
| Date | Pressure at Tahiti (hPa) | Pressure at Darwin (hPa) | Daily value | 30-day average SOI | 90-day average SOI |
| 9-Oct-2026 | 1014.05 | 1012.90 | -11.22 (+11.41) | -21.64 (+0.16) | -19.61 (+0.22) |
| 8-Oct-2026 | 1013.63 | 1014.25 | -22.63 (-1.74) | -21.80 (+0.14) | -19.83 (-0.03) |
| 7-Oct-2026 | 1014.35 | 1014.70 | -20.89 (-10.06) | -21.94 (+0.13) | -19.80 (+0.02) |
| 6-Oct-2026 | 1015.56 | 1014.35 | -10.83 (+1.68) | -22.07 (+0.35) | -19.82 (+0.38) |
| 5-Oct-2026 | 1015.35 | 1014.40 | -12.51 (+8.83) | -22.42 (+0.14) | -20.20 (+0.36) |
| 4-Oct-2026 | 1014.48 | 1014.90 | -21.34 (+9.15) | -22.56 (-0.45) | -20.56 (+0.11) |
| 3-Oct-2026 | 1014.11 | 1015.95 | -30.49 (-6.06) | -22.11 (-0.7) | -20.67 (+0.05) |
| 2-Oct-2026 | 1014.50 | 1015.40 | -24.43 (-5.41) | -21.41 (-0.46) | -20.72 (+0.10) |
| 1-Oct-2026 | 1015.64 | 1015.70 | -19.02 (-8.5) | -20.95 (-0.34) | -20.82 (-0.04) |
| 30-Sep-2026 | 1016.35 | 1015.80 | -10.52 (+5.58) | -20.61 (-0.32) | -20.78 (+/-0.00) |
| 29-Sep-2026 | 1015.41 | 1015.80 | -16.10 (-2.55) | -20.29 (-0.47) | -20.78 (-0.12) |
| 28-Sep-2026 | 1015.24 | 1015.20 | -13.55 (+0.89) | -19.82 (-0.19) | -20.66 (+0.01) |
| 27-Sep-2026 | 1015.34 | 1015.45 | -14.44 (+5.41) | -19.63 (-0.23) | -20.67 (+0.02) |
| 26-Sep-2026 | 1014.78 | 1015.80 | -19.85 (-5.23) | -19.40 (-0.34) | -20.69 (-0.04) |
| 25-Sep-2026 | 1015.56 | 1015.70 | -14.62 (-2.56) | -19.06 (-0.12) | -20.65 (+0.13) |
| 24-Sep-2026 | 1015.79 | 1015.50 | -12.06 (+/-0.00) | -18.94 (-0.18) | -20.78 (+0.18) |
| 23-Sep-2026 | 1015.19 | 1014.90 | -12.06 (-2.2) | -18.76 (-0.16) | -20.96 (+0.14) |
| 22-Sep-2026 | 1015.76 | 1015.10 | -9.86 (+13.14) | -18.60 (+0.16) | -21.10 (+0.26) |
| 21-Sep-2026 | 1015.05 | 1016.60 | -23.00 (+12.18) | -18.76 (+0.24) | -21.36 (+0.17) |
| 20-Sep-2026 | 1013.75 | 1017.35 | -35.18 (+7.19) | -19.00 (-0.08) | -21.53 (-0.01) |
| 19-Sep-2026 | 1011.89 | 1016.70 | -42.37 (-7.85) | -18.92 (-0.23) | -21.52 (-0.21) |
| 18-Sep-2026 | 1010.91 | 1014.40 | -34.52 (-3.5) | -18.69 (-0.21) | -21.31 (-0.19) |
| 17-Sep-2026 | 1011.10 | 1014.00 | -31.02 (+2.79) | -18.48 (-0.29) | -21.12 (-0.28) |
| 16-Sep-2026 | 1011.63 | 1015.00 | -33.81 (-10.76) | -18.19 (-0.52) | -20.84 (-0.33) |
| 15-Sep-2026 | 1012.84 | 1014.40 | -23.05 (+2.86) | -17.67 (-0.17) | -20.51 (-0.21) |
| 14-Sep-2026 | 1012.86 | 1014.90 | -25.91 (-0.3) | -17.50 (-0.06) | -20.30 (-0.26) |
| 13-Sep-2026 | 1013.56 | 1015.55 | -25.61 (+4.16) | -17.44 (-0.12) | -20.04 (-0.15) |
| 12-Sep-2026 | 1012.91 | 1015.60 | -29.77 (-0.89) | -17.32 (-0.79) | -19.89 (-0.03) |
| 11-Sep-2026 | 1012.86 | 1015.40 | -28.88 (-9.15) | -16.53 (-1.02) | -19.86 (+0.06) |
| 10-Sep-2026 | 1012.90 | 1013.90 | -19.73 | -15.51 | -19.92 |
Charts: 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Source: The State of Queensland, Australia
For the latest synopsis of the current ENSO conditions, please visit Australia's Bureau of Meteorology website.
Last Accessed: Sat Oct 10 2026 01:07:18 HKT
Last Modified: Sun Aug 16 2026
